Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: Tariff fallout reduces chances of near-term rate The uncertainty from the recent US tariff announcements has reduced the chances of a near-term rate hike by the Bank of Japan. But if we’re right that the hit to Japan’s economy will ultimately be... 4th April 2025 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Answering your questions about Liberation Day tariffs We hosted two online Drop-In sessions on 3rd April to discuss the fallout from President Trump’s Liberation Day tariff announcement. (See a recording here.) This Update contains answers to some of the... 3rd April 2025 · 9 mins read
China Economics Update US tariff rate on China now almost 70% We’d already assumed substantial US tariffs on China in our forecasts. But the latest hikes take them even higher than we had anticipated. The economic hit to China will range between 0.5-1.0% of GDP... 3rd April 2025 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update First thoughts on the impact of US tariffs on Asia Asian economies will be hit harder than most by US reciprocal tariffs. We were already expecting more rate cuts than the consensus in most countries in the region, but there’s now a risk that central... 3rd April 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ will cut rates to 2.5% by mid-2026 We expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to cut its Official Cash Rate by 25bp, to 3.5%, at its next meeting on 9th April. Although activity is now on the mend, spare capacity will ease only... 2nd April 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing steady, but tariffs cloud the outlook The EM manufacturing PMI ticked up in March on the back of a pick-up in China as well as a continued recovery in Central and Eastern Europe. But tariffs present a major headwind to EMs’ industrial... 1st April 2025 · 3 mins read
RBI Watch RBI Watch: Tariffs would reinforce case for further easing The recent sharp drop in headline CPI inflation means that the Reserve Bank is primed to cut the repo rate again at the conclusion of the MPC meeting on Wednesday 9th April. And barring a debilitating... 1st April 2025 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Update Asia March PMIs, Korea Trade The March PMIs for Asia were generally subdued, supporting our view that GDP growth in the region is set to remain below trend in the near term. And with inflation back to target in most economies, we... 1st April 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Reserve Bank of Australia will only cut rates to 3.6% While the RBA is becoming increasingly confident that inflation will sustainably return to target, we still expect its easing cycle to be shallower than most anticipate. 1st April 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA rate cuts won’t do much for housing affordability Australian house price growth remained soft in March, amid still-weak housing demand. Although the RBA’s easing cycle could help deliver a shift in momentum later this year, stretched affordability is... 1st April 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (Apr. 25) 1st April 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Retail Sales (Feb. 2025) With consumers seemingly keeping spending on a tight leash, there is a risk that the RBA will loosen policy a bit more than we currently expect this cycle. 1st April 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Tankan (Q1 2025) While business conditions were unchanged in the latest Tankan survey, the survey suggests that an increasingly overheating economy is creating strong price pressures. 1st April 2025 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Central banks buying more gold ≠ ditching the dollar Whilst buying gold may reduce central banks’ overall exposure to the dollar, we don’t think that the surge in central bank gold demand reflects a severe loss of confidence in the greenback. Instead... 31st March 2025 · 4 mins read
Climate Economics Monthly Climate Monthly: Climate policy falls down the agenda The recent scrapping of the carbon tax in Canada shows that the political pushback against climate policy is certainly not just confined to the United States. But to paraphrase Mark Twain, rumours of... 31st March 2025 · 5 mins read
China Rapid Response China PMIs (Mar. 2025) The PMIs suggest that infrastructure spending is ramping up again and that exports have so far remained resilient in the face of US tariffs. But the surveys are still consistent with slower GDP growth... 31st March 2025 · 3 mins read
