FX Markets Update Conditions for carry trade set to turn less favourable. We think after a period of sustained outperformance, total returns in high-yielding EM currencies relative to funding currencies will be weaker in the next couple of years. In particular, we forecast... 16th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Friends with benefits: the US, Argentina and other EMs The US’s recent pledge of support for Argentina raises the question of whether other EMs facing financial difficulty might receive similar assistance. Pakistan and Jordan are potential candidates, as... 16th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update Lower BoJ profits not a major drag on public finances If we’re right that the Bank of Japan will lift its policy rate to 1.5% by 2027, its net interest income will turn negative over the next couple of years. However, its overall net income should remain... 16th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Sep. 2025) The marked loosening of the labour market last month bolsters the case for the RBA to cut rates by 25bp at its meeting in November. Even so, the decision will probably come down to the wire, given the... 16th October 2025 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update US may revive plans to curb financial ties with China While talk of US retaliation against China’s new export controls has mostly focused on tariffs and other barriers to goods trade, investment restrictions are another weapon in Washington’s arsenal. If... 15th October 2025 · 6 mins read
Global Commercial Property Update Retail and residential sectors set to outperform globally In a period of slow economic growth but stabilising inflation and earnings growth, we expect the residential sector to see the strongest rental growth globally, with industrial close behind thanks to... 15th October 2025 · 4 mins read
China Rapid Response China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Sep.) Bank loan growth continued to weaken in September, with little sign of any boost from the consumer loan subsidy scheme. And growth in government bond issuance slowed for a second month, driving a... 15th October 2025 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Focus Prabowo’s first year: abandoning the policy guardrails? Indonesia’s President Prabowo Subianto will mark a year in office on Monday (20th October). After an encouraging start, a series of protests in recent months have pushed his administration in the... 15th October 2025 · 15 mins read
Capital Daily The implications of Japan’s political turmoil for its markets We don’t think the political drama in Japan will be a drag on the country’s bond and stock markets and may, in the near term, even give them a boost. 15th October 2025 · 4 mins read
China Rapid Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Sep. 2025) Core CPI inflation edged up to a multi-year high last month and PPI deflation eased. But this largely reflects temporary factors and base effects, rather than the impact of the “anti-involution"... 15th October 2025 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily US Treasury yields unlikely to drop much further The sharp fall in interest rate expectations and long-term government bond yields over recent days in response to renewed US-China tensions has brough the 10-year Treasury yield to around its lowest... 14th October 2025 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update Another look at China’s new export controls A closer inspection suggests that the scope of China’s new controls on rare earths is narrower than many, including us, had initially feared. But they still give officials plenty of leverage over... 14th October 2025 · 3 mins read
India Economics Focus India’s inflation target is still fit for purpose India is closing in on a decade of inflation targeting and the current framework is up for review. The success of the Reserve Bank in keeping inflation lower and less volatile since the introduction... 14th October 2025 · 11 mins read
Asia Economics Update Singapore’s growth set to ease but MAS to stay on hold Singapore’s central bank kept policy settings unchanged today and its accompanying statement was a touch hawkish. With the economy set to slow rather than slump, inflation likely to rise gradually... 14th October 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response RBA Minutes (Sep. 2025) Although the RBA sounded less confident about the policy space it has to lower rates, we still expect it to deliver two more 25bp cuts in the months ahead. 14th October 2025 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Key questions (and answers) on rare earth elements With China’s rare earth export controls back in the spotlight, this Update answers seven key questions on the in-vogue elements and the economic consequences of disruption to their supply. 13th October 2025 · 5 mins read
