Bank of Japan Watch Bank of Japan will hike rates again in April Provided that crude oil prices don’t rise much further, their recent increase won’t lift inflation to levels that the Bank of Japan would find intolerable. But with underlying inflation holding up... 12th March 2026 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Update Energy shock in Asia: policy choices ahead High energy prices and growing concerns over energy security have already prompted significant policy responses across Asia. Some governments are looking to introduce inflation-suppressing measures... 10th March 2026 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update China well placed to weather energy price shock Events in the Middle East mean that China will have to stomach a higher import bill. But China’s economy is not especially dependent on oil and natural gas. And the country has large reserves that it... 10th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Is Asia running on empty with LNG? Asian economies vary in how dependent they are on LNG from the Gulf – for China and Japan, dependence is low, while Pakistan, Taiwan and Korea have much higher exposure. Low domestic inventories leave... 10th March 2026 · 4 mins read
RBA Watch RBA will deliver back-to-back hikes in March and May We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise rates by 25bp at its meeting ending on 17th March. The conditions for a sustained acceleration in inflation were in place even before the Iran conflict... 10th March 2026 · 8 mins read
China Rapid Response China Merchandise Trade (Jan. & Feb. 2026) Both exports and imports started the year much stronger than expected. While the recent pace of gains is unlikely to be sustained, exports are likely to remain robust given the recent decline in US... 10th March 2026 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan will have to hike rates if Iran crisis continues Pakistan is one of the countries most threatened by the global energy shock because of its dependence on LNG from the Gulf, a recent history of very high inflation and balance of payments weaknesses... 9th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Escalation and asset markets With the war continuing to escalate, this edition of the Capital Daily takes stock of how markets have fared so far and provides some thoughts on what might – and might not – continue to fare the best... 9th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Soaring oil prices may prompt RBNZ to hike this year The surge in energy prices will prompt the RBA to hike rates by another 25bp at its meeting next week and increases the chances that the RBNZ will start tightening policy before the end of the year. 9th March 2026 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Feb. 2026) CPI inflation recovered last month, thanks to temporary factors such as an easing of oil price deflation and volatility in food and tourism prices around Lunar New Year. Tensions in the Middle East... 9th March 2026 · 2 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Labour Cash Earnings (Jan. 26) The strength in wage growth at the start of the year, combined with promising signs for upcoming spring wage negotiations, should put the Bank of Japan in a good position to resume its tightening... 8th March 2026 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly NPC Press Conference: a little domestic rebalancing… Today's press conference for the heads of senior economic and financial ministries made clear that, while the leadership is looking to drive some degree of domestic rebalancing towards consumption... 6th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Commodities Weekly The nightmare energy scenario cometh As conflict in the Middle East rumbles on, the key issue for energy markets is the extent and duration of disruption of shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. The steady upward trend in oil prices as... 6th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly A stagflationary shock for Asia Higher oil prices from the Middle East conflict would act as a terms-of-trade shock for Asia’s largely energy-importing economies, squeezing households and firms and slowing growth. Inflation would... 6th March 2026 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Russian oil reprieve, but other risks from Iran conflict mount One of India's key exposures to the Middle East conflict is higher oil prices, so news that the US has temporarily eased sanctions on Russian oil purchases will have brought some relief in New Delhi... 6th March 2026 · 5 mins read
