Event Drop-In: US-Iran deal – Macro and market implications of a Strait of Hormuz reopening 15th June 2026, 1:00PM BST What will the US-Iran deal to extend the ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz mean for the global economic outlook? How long before energy flows are restored? How will central banks respond to...
Capital Daily Peace dividend may not be paid in full to all markets The announcement of a US-Iran deal has given markets a lift across the board, but different responses across central banks this week could see the start of more divergence across bond and FX markets. 15th June 2026 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly The PBOC can’t boost household credit demand Slowing credit growth in China is yet another sign of the dwindling consumption appetite of households. Bank lending to households has been contracting outright in recent months, even though liquidity... 12th June 2026 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Outlook for Asian currencies hinges on US-Iran deal Asian currencies have rebounded on hopes of a US–Iran deal and lower oil prices. Stronger currencies would reduce the need for aggressive rate hikes by Asian central banks. 12th June 2026 · 7 mins read
India Rapid Response India Consumer Prices (May 2026) India’s headline consumer price inflation picked up to a 15-month high of 3.9% y/y in May and further rises are going to follow. We think the RBI will start hiking interest rates soon. Consumer price... 12th June 2026 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Oil market “offsets”; gold losing its shine The plunge in China's crude oil imports has helped to cushion the impact of the disruption to the Strait of Hormuz on the global oil market, and we think China could feasibly maintain the status quo... 12th June 2026 · 4 mins read
China Rapid Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (May.) The net increase in new credit jumped in May, but that just reflects the usual seasonal pattern. Year-on-year growth in aggregate financing to the real economy (AFRE – the PBOC’s preferred measure of... 12th June 2026 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Rupee support measures buy time, but aren’t a solution The combined RBI and government package of measures to support the rupee unveiled last Friday appears to have halted the currency’s slide, but it has failed to trigger a meaningful recovery. A... 12th June 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly A cooling housing market but the RBA’s job isn’t done Australian consumers remain deeply pessimistic, particularly about the housing market, with house price expectations falling to a three-year low and auction clearance rates continuing to weaken. Even... 12th June 2026 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ on track to hike despite Ueda’s absence Following his unexpected hospitalisation, Governor Ueda will miss next week's BoJ meeting. However, with inflation pressures continuing to build, there will almost certainly still be a majority in... 12th June 2026 · 5 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Pace of tightening set to accelerate BoJ Board members have signalled that they will lift the policy rate next week. And with inflationary pressures set to strengthen, the Bank will probably accelerate its tightening cycle thereafter. We... 10th June 2026 · 7 mins read
China Rapid Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (May 2026) Although cost pressures for Chinese firms picked up further in May, they remain somewhat narrow in scope. Moreover, consumer price inflation is already showing signs of tapering off, and we think it... 10th June 2026 · 2 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Producer Prices (May) The continued strength in producer price inflation makes it all but certain that the Bank of Japan will hike rates at its meeting next week. We also expect the Bank to speed up the pace of policy... 10th June 2026 · 2 mins read
RBA Watch RBA will hold fire for now, but leave its options open The RBA will leave rates on hold at 4.35% at its meeting next Tuesday. With the economy showing signs of cooling, the Bank will likely signal a cautious approach to any further policy adjustment... 9th June 2026 · 7 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Indonesia Emergency Interest Rate Announcement (Jun. 2026) 9th June 2026 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China Merchandise Trade (May 2026) Chinese exports gained further momentum in May, led by soaring semiconductor shipments. Meanwhile, the pickup in import growth mostly reflects favourable base effects. 9th June 2026 · 3 mins read
