Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand GDP (Q4 2025) With the economy still operating with substantial excess capacity, we think the RBNZ will leave rates on hold for several months to come. However, there is a high degree of uncertainty around the... 18th March 2026 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Energy shock looms large over India’s state elections India’s state election cycle kicks back into gear next month with the energy shock from the Iran conflict reverberating across the country. That raises the stakes for New Delhi: if the crisis... 18th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka – in the path of the storm Sri Lanka’s fragile external position makes it one of the countries most vulnerable to a sharp rise in energy prices, and the decision earlier this week to declare every Wednesday a public holiday for... 18th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Net government debt will fall to 80% of GDP by 2028 Japan’s public finances are improving at an even faster pace than we had anticipated, supporting our long-held view that the country won’t experience a fiscal crisis anytime soon. 18th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Energy crisis won’t hasten Australia’s shift to renewables The Iran conflict has exposed Australia’s continued reliance on fossil fuels, reigniting debate over a green energy pivot. While the government has legislated ambitious climate targets, it has shown... 17th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Indonesia Interest Rate Announcement (Mar. 2026) Bank Indonesia left its policy rate unchanged at 4.75% for a sixth consecutive meeting today and, while officials seemed sanguine about inflation risks, they are clearly concerned about the renewed... 17th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA will hike rates again in May Although the RBA’s decision to raise rates at its meeting today was made by the narrowest of margins, the split vote primarily reflected differences regarding the timing of the move rather than the... 17th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Equities Update How much of a bubble is there really in Korean equities? While a partial unwind of earlier “excessive exuberance” may explain some of the huge swings in Korea’s equities since the Iran war began, we think the fundamentals of its earlier rally are stronger... 17th March 2026 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (March 2026) Amid concerns that the ongoing energy price spike will adversely affect the inflation outlook, the RBA raised rates by 25bp at its meeting today. However, the decision was made by the narrowest of... 17th March 2026 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily War and monetary policy, and what it means for markets Major central bank meetings this week will give investors an early sense of how monetary policymakers will respond to the war. We suspect there isn’t much good news in the offing for bonds. 16th March 2026 · 6 mins read
China Rapid Response China Activity & Spending (Jan. & Feb. 2026) China’s activity data suggest that growth accelerated at the start of the year, driven by both strong exports and a pickup in domestic demand. While China is better placed than most economies to... 16th March 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Energy shortages rippling through Australian supply chains With supplies of crude oil from the Gulf dwindling, local prices of petroleum products imported from the Asia-Pacific region have already risen more sharply than movements in crude oil prices would... 16th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Russia sanction relief barely helps; cracks in refined markets The temporary easing of Russian oil sanctions by the US is one of several levers being pulled by policymakers to reduce oil prices from ~$100pb. But despite these efforts, prices will remain high for... 13th March 2026 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly LPG shortage taking a toll in India India's Finance Ministry today announced an "Economic Stabilisation Fund" which will be partly used to boost fertiliser subsidies, but a halt to supply of LNG would nevertheless cause major disruption... 13th March 2026 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly China bans fuel exports to avert shortages While China can’t avoid paying higher prices for imported crude, as a net exporter of refined petroleum products it can turn to trade barriers to shield itself from the soaring mark-up on these... 13th March 2026 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Update Energy shock compounds Indonesia’s fiscal challenges Indonesia was already struggling to contain its budget deficit and the conflict in the Middle East will only add to the challenges, with the government planning to temper the impact on local fuel... 13th March 2026 · 3 mins read
