Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan will hike rates before year-end The Bank of Japan decided to taper its bond purchases at a slower pace from next year and retained its pessimistic outlook for the economy. However, we expect that mounting upside risks to the Bank’s... 17th June 2025 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response China Activity & Spending (May 2025) The US-China trade truce was not enough to prevent a broader loss of economic momentum last month. With tariffs set to remain high, fiscal support waning and structural headwinds persisting, growth is... 16th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Israel’s war economy at risk from further escalation Israel’s economy has historically been resilient to conflict, but a continued escalation in hostilities with Iran would raise significant downside risks to activity and the public finances. Heightened... 13th June 2025 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: BOJ will still see inflation risks tilting higher The Bank of Japan meets next week with domestic data mixed and trade headwinds significant. It won’t consider hiking this time, but we don’t think – as many now do – that the Bank won’t move again... 13th June 2025 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: Still wary of welfare spending, an empty deal It's now nearly a year since China's leadership promised to "vigorously boost consumption" and the government this week released another policy document pledging more support for households. These... 13th June 2025 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: Recovery appears to be stumbling in the Antipodes New survey data suggest that business conditions in Australia continued to deteriorate in May. Moreover, with firms also reporting a renewed easing in cost and price pressures, risks are tilting... 13th June 2025 · 5 mins read
China Rapid Response China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (May.) Bank loan growth continued to slow last month, but broad credit growth held steady, thanks to the continued strength of non-bank borrowing. With deflation keeping real lending rates elevated, despite... 13th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia Weekly: Inflation to stay low, sharp fiscal tightening in Pakistan Recent data show inflation stayed soft across Asia last month, with Thailand, Sri Lanka, and China all in deflation. While the jump in oil prices following Israel’s attacks on Iran pose an upside risk... 13th June 2025 · 8 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Q3 Outlook, inflation, defence spending Headline inflation in India has dropped to a more-than-six-year low and, while higher oil prices are an upside risk following Israel's air strikes on Iran, there are reasons to think inflation will... 13th June 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM fiscal risks - a story of growing country differences EM sovereign debt risks remain much higher than in the pre-pandemic period. There are positive stories of declining risk in those EMs undergoing reforms (e.g. Argentina) and low fiscal risks in the... 12th June 2025 · 6 mins read
India Rapid Response India Consumer Prices (May 2025) India’s headline consumer price inflation fell to a 75-month low of 2.8% y/y in May. Inflation may now have bottomed out, but we think it will rise only very gradually back towards the Reserve Bank’s... 12th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Rare earths “deal” won’t be the final word President Trump’s claim that China has agreed to supply the US with “ANY NECESSARY RARE EARTHS… UP FRONT” might seem to draw a line under concerns about supply shortages and production shutdowns. But... 12th June 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Limited US-China “deal” suggests ambitions are low A deal with China is done, according to President Trump, but its scope seems to be limited to easing some recent non-tariff restrictions, including China’s rare earth export controls. The wider trade... 11th June 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Reflections on recent elections Recent presidential elections in Poland, Romania and Korea have led to significant moves in their financial markets. But from a macro perspective, what also matters is the composition of the... 10th June 2025 · 4 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch BOJ Watch: Bank of Japan will resume tightening in October We suspect that the Bank of Japan will stick to its downbeat outlook for economic activity at its upcoming meeting. However, we doubt that trade tensions will weigh on inflation as much as... 10th June 2025 · 9 mins read
