The reciprocal tariff rates announced this week as part of Liberation Day 2.0 were largely unchanged from April, though a few smaller countries in South East Asia saw their rates cut. While the lack of progress on agreeing trade deals is a concern, we expect most countries to strike agreements that leave US-bound goods facing tariff rates in the 10–20% range.
Meanwhile, the surge in exports from Taiwan and Vietnam, which have been driven mostly by tariff front-running, may soon start to fade. This will cause growth in both economies to slow in the second half of the year.
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