Global recession seals real estate downturn In line with changes in our global economic view, we have made significant downgrades to our commercial real estate forecasts for the next couple of years. As a result, we now expect a much bigger drop in property values next year that will cause annual returns to be negative in all our key markets. In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this UK Commercial Property Update to clients of our US and Europe Commercial Property Services. 8th November 2022
Fracturing and financial flows The trend towards ever more “financial globalisation” has already decelerated and will probably slow further as the global economy fractures and policymakers favour resilience over efficiency. While a disorderly rupture of financial relations remains unlikely, links between the US and China will weaken. 6th October 2022
China commodity imports set to rebound this year Commodity imports generally rose in December, but fell in 2022 as a whole. In a possible sign of optimism around reopening, soybean imports skyrocketed. China’s unexpectedly swift switch to living with COVID should see commodity imports, particularly crude oil, recover this year. 13th January 2023
A lower gas price forecast, but prices to stay high European natural gas prices have halved over the past month as usage stayed low and LNG imports hit record highs. Barring dramatically colder weather, EU gas storage looks set to be in a more comfortable position than we had expected. As a result, we have revised down our end-2023 gas price forecast. Drop-Ins – The World In 2023 (10-11 January): Will 2023 be another rollercoaster year for economies and markets? Join our senior economists for these special briefings on 10th and 11th January to find out what to expect in the coming 12 months. Register now. 6th January 2023
The World in 2023: Property prices to plunge Property markets rebounded strongly after 2020, in part boosted by favourable structural shifts brought on by the pandemic. But they have hit the buffers in recent months. And fortunes are likely to deteriorate further next year, which we expect to be the worst for real estate prices since the end of the GFC. In view of the wider interest we are also sending this UK Commercial Property Update to clients of other Property Services. 15th December 2022
Investment set for weak H1 before picking up in late-2023 We expect the slowdown in investment activity in the second half of 2022 to persist into the first half of 2023. But we think transactions will begin to recover later this year once interest rates have topped out and much of the valuation adjustment has come through. 20th January 2023
Event EM Drop-In: What China’s re-opening means for emerging markets Starts 2nd February 2023 at 3PM GMT China has made an abrupt shift away from zero-COVID, prompting a wave of market euphoria – and some anxiety – about a surge in demand. But what does the economy’s reopening really mean for emerging...
Emerging Asia Economics Weekly Rebounding won, Vietnam politics, dovish surprises The rebound in the won is unlikely to be welcomed by the country’s struggling exporters, but will come as a relief to the Bank of Korea, which had become worried that higher import prices would keep... 20th January 2023
Event Asia Drop-In: The latest on China’s reopening, Asian monetary policy, and markets Starts 26th January 2023 at 8AM GMT China’s shift from zero-COVID is the big Asia story of the moment and our economists gave an update on what this means for the region’s growth outlook, including how quickly outbound tourism is rec
Emerging Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs & Korea Trade (Dec.) Manufacturing PMIs across the region rose slightly in December but remained weak overall. We continue to expect weaker global demand, high inflation and interest rates to drag on manufacturing ahead.... 3rd January 2023
Emerging Asia Economics Weekly Exporters take a beating, worse still to come Recent trade data from Emerging Asia have been downbeat and, with the global economy heading for recession, worse is still to come. 23rd December 2022
Emerging Asia Economic Outlook Rate cuts in 2023 as growth slows Economic growth will slow sharply in most of the region in 2023 as higher interest rates and weaker exports drag on demand. Our GDP growth forecasts are below consensus in most countries. With... 13th December 2022
Emerging Asia Chart Book Consumer resilience unlikely to last Most countries in the region have now reported GDP figures for the third quarter, and growth was generally faster than we (and the consensus) had expected. One factor behind this resilience was the... 29th November 2022
Emerging Asia Chart Book Policymakers increase currency support Central banks across the region have been stepping up the pace of intervention in foreign exchange markets to support their currencies, resulting in a drop in FX reserves. In most countries, reserves... 31st October 2022
Emerging Asia Economics Update Vietnam: more hikes likely as dong pressure intensifies Vietnam’s central bank (SBV) hiked its main policy rate by a further 100bp (to 6.0%) yesterday at an unscheduled meeting as it attempted to support the currency. With the dong likely to remain under... 25th October 2022
Event Asia Drop-In: China’s Congress, more yen weakness, hawkish central banks and more Starts 27th October 2022 at 8AM BST Economists from across our Asia teams were online for this 20-minute briefing on the region’s big investment stories.
Emerging Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs, Korea Trade, Indonesia CPI Manufacturing PMIs across the region were downbeat in September, as new export orders declined again. We expect conditions to remain subdued, as weaker global demand, high inflation and tighter... 3rd October 2022
Emerging Asia Data Response Vietnam GDP (Q3) Vietnam recorded another quarter of strong growth last quarter, and while higher interest rates will act as a drag on demand, strong export demand should ensure the economy continues to outperform. 29th September 2022
Emerging Asia Economics Weekly Vietnam joins the region’s tightening cycle Despite low inflation, Vietnam’s central bank (SBV) joined the region’s tightening cycle on Thursday, when it raised rates by 100bp. Further hikes are likely as the SBV looks to support the dong... 23rd September 2022
Emerging Asia Economic Outlook Tightening cycles to be short lived as headwinds grow Further interest rate hikes are likely across the region in the near term, and we have raised some of our year-end forecasts to reflect growing concern among the region’s policymakers about inflation... 20th July 2022
Emerging Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs, Korea Trade, Indonesia CPI Manufacturing PMIs for June fell back mainly due to the weakness of external demand. We think weaker global growth will remain a drag on exports over the coming months and that the region’s industrial... 1st July 2022
Emerging Asia Economics Update Vietnam: on the mend Economic growth in Vietnam accelerated in the second quarter of the year, thanks mainly to a reopening boost and continued strong export demand. We expect the recovery to continue over the coming... 29th June 2022
