Asia Economics Weekly Vietnam export boom continues, Thai deflation risks GDP growth in Vietnam held firm at 8.2% y/y in Q3, underpinned by resilient exports despite the 20% US tariffs introduced in August. The strength of the export sector likely reflects increased re... 10th October 2025 · 6 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Vietnam GDP (Q3 2025) Vietnam’s economy remained strong in the third quarter, and we expect it to continue posting healthy growth rates ahead as the hit from US tariffs proves manageable. 6th October 2025 · 2 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook Soft growth ahead, region to weather tariff threat Asia’s economies look set for further weak growth over the rest of this year and to the end of 2026, as tighter fiscal policy and softer exports outweigh resilient consumption, which is being... 25th September 2025 · 25 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (Sep. 2025) EM GDP growth generally held up well in H1 but we think it will soften over the second half of the year as US tariffs, tighter fiscal policy and slowing wage growth bite. The inflation outlook is... 17th September 2025 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Rerouting providing less of an offset Our updated estimates suggest that trade rerouting is so far doing less to insulate Chinese exports from US tariffs than in the past. That’s largely because rerouting via Mexico hasn’t picked up since... 16th September 2025 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update More to strong Asian exports than tariff front-running Strong growth in exports from Asia in the first half of the year has fuelled talk that, with US tariffs now in place, shipments will fall sharply as tariff front-running ends. But we’re not convinced... 19th August 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (Aug. 2025) Our View: The Q2 GDP figures out so far point to robust growth across much of the emerging world, but we think growth will soften over the second half of the year. While growth across much of Asia... 14th August 2025 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia Weekly: Trump's tariffs and what they mean for Asia Most countries in Asia will face tariffs of 15–25% on their exports to the US. While the tariffs are higher than we initially assumed, the impact on most countries will be manageable since they won’t... 1st August 2025 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Update Asia Manufacturing PMIs (July) The July PMI readings for most countries in Asia were subdued and we continue to expect activity in Asia’s export-oriented manufacturing sectors to struggle in the coming months. And with inflation... 1st August 2025 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia Weekly: Lessons from the Indonesia and Vietnam trade deals With Indonesia joining Vietnam this week in securing a trade deal with the US, there are some important implications for the rest of the region. One is that the strength of a country’s negotiating... 18th July 2025 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia Weekly: Tariff uncertainty to drag on, export boom won’t last The reciprocal tariff rates announced this week as part of Liberation Day 2.0 were largely unchanged from April, though a few smaller countries in South East Asia saw their rates cut. While the lack... 11th July 2025 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam’s export success only partly due to rerouting Vietnam’s US-bound exports have surged since the US imposed very high tariffs on imports from China. While the export figures are overstating the benefits to Vietnam’s economy due to a surge in... 7th July 2025 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia Weekly: Vietnam trade agreement eases worst-case fears The newly agreed US–Vietnam trade agreement should help preserve Vietnam’s competitive edge in the region, but the overall impact will also depend on how other countries in Asia are treated. Meanwhile... 4th July 2025 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam settles with Trump, with China again a target Vietnam has had one of the weakest hands to play in its trade negotiations with the US. If it is confirmed that it has agreed to a 20% tariff, this isn’t a template that other countries will feel they... 2nd July 2025 · 3 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook Asia Outlook: Tepid growth for many as tariff threat looms We expect GDP growth across most of Asia to soften in 2025, with many countries likely to record below-consensus growth. The risk of escalating trade tensions remains a key concern, particularly for... 26th June 2025 · 28 mins read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam: limited impact from scrapping two-child policy The abolition of Vietnam’s controversial two-child policy will not lead to a sharp rise in the number of children being born, and will have only a small economic impact. 5th June 2025 · 3 mins read
