Asia Economics Weekly

Falling fertility in Korea, government in retreat

New figures released this week show that the fertility rate in Korea fell again last year to a new all-time low of just 0.72 births per woman. The decline in the fertility rate will weigh heavily on...

30th August 2024 · 7 mins read

Asia Economics Weekly

Taiwan defies dovish shift among Asia’s central banks

The common theme across the three central bank meetings in Asia this week was that inflation concerns are fading, partly due to a rebound in currencies, and policymakers appear a bit more concerned...

23rd August 2024 · 5 mins read

Asia Economics Weekly

Thailand’s truce breaks down, Asia’s central banks start to shift stance

Paetongtarn Shinawatra is the third member of her family to serve as Thailand’s prime minister. Both her father and her aunt then went into exile. Events over the past two weeks will give investors no...

16th August 2024 · 9 mins read

Asia Economics Weekly

US growth worries, BSP’s close call, Bangladesh turmoil

Our US team believe that while a soft landing for the US economy is still the most likely outcome, the risk of a hard landing has risen. Vietnam stands out as the most vulnerable country in Asia to a...

9th August 2024 · 6 mins read

Asia Economics Weekly

Korea growth worries, new Taiwan GDP forecast

The latest batch of data from Korea underline how much the economy has struggled in recent months. Despite the weak economy, the jump in inflation last month has dashed any hopes of a rate cut at the...

2nd August 2024 · 7 mins read

Asia Economics Weekly

Korean weakness, CBSL rate cut, Vietnam uncertainty

The Korean GDP data published earlier this week highlighted how unbalanced the economy has been since the pandemic. Exports have been very strong, but domestic demand has struggled. Meanwhile, Sri...

26th July 2024 · 8 mins read

Asia Economics Weekly

Korea: contraction in Q2, weak H2

Second quarter GDP figures for Korea, due to be published next week, are likely to show the economy contracted last quarter. Growth in the second half of the year is also likely to struggle, with weak...

19th July 2024 · 6 mins read

Asia Economics Weekly

Korea: assessing the impact of the strike at Samsung

Even if the strike by workers at Samsung Electronics is brought to an end soon, it has served to highlight once again the inflexibility of Korea’s labour market and the poor state of industrial...

12th July 2024 · 7 mins read

Asia Economics Weekly

Indonesia puts tariffs on China, rebound in Vietnam

Indonesia has become the latest country in Asia to announce measures to stem the flow of cheap imports from China. But while the tariffs may help Indonesian producers maintain market share at home...

5th July 2024 · 8 mins read

Asia Economics Weekly

Weak Korean activity data, dovish BSP, hawkish BoT

The latest monthly activity data for Korea suggest that the economy weakened again last month and that GDP will have contracted in the second quarter of the year. In addition, while the central bank...

28th June 2024 · 7 mins read

Asia Economics Weekly

Thai budget boost, Singapore’s cooling jobs market

Most countries in Asia are planning to tighten fiscal policy as they aim to put government finances on a more secure footing following the pandemic. One exception to this is Thailand, which this week...

21st June 2024 · 6 mins read

Asia Economics Weekly

Malaysia subsidy cuts, BoK minutes, Pakistan budget

Headline inflation in Malaysia has been among the lowest in Asia but that is soon set to change now that the government is pushing ahead with long-planned subsidy cuts aimed at improving the public...

14th June 2024 · 6 mins read

Asia Economics Weekly

BoT to cut rates, inflation falling in Korea, Modi 3.0

A weak economy, low inflation and a strengthening currency mean the conditions are in place for the Bank of Thailand to begin loosening monetary policy at its meeting on Wednesday. Meanwhile...

7th June 2024 · 7 mins read

Asia Economics Weekly

Vietnam: Rates to end the year lower, not higher

The risk of monetary tightening in Vietnam has risen over the past few weeks due to concerns about the currency and inflation. We still think a rate hike is unlikely. But even if the central bank (SBV...

31st May 2024 · 7 mins read

Asia Economics Weekly

Singapore slowdown, Thailand’s weak recovery

GDP growth in Singapore slowed sharply in the first quarter of the year, and the outlook for the rest of 2024 is very poor, with a weakening labour market, tighter fiscal policy and subdued global...

24th May 2024 · 6 mins read