Asia Economics Weekly Korea: resilient activity data, sticky inflation We are sticking with our view that the Bank of Korea will cut interest rates at its June meeting, but the recent resilience of the economy and the stickiness of inflation means the risks are skewed to... 8th March 2024 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea: President Yoon’s rise in popularity boosts reform hopes President Yoon Suk-yeol has seen a rebound in his popularity in recent weeks, helped in part by the strong stance he has taken against the country’s striking junior doctors. The improvement in the... 1st March 2024 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Bank of Thailand under pressure to cut interest rates Thailand has experienced by far the slowest recovery from the pandemic in the region – with GDP just 0.5% bigger than it was in the final quarter of 2019. While much of the weakness is due to the slow... 23rd February 2024 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly BoK on hold, Malaysia Q4 GDP, election roundup The Bank of Korea looks almost certain to leave interest rates unchanged at its meeting on Thursday. Instead, the focus will be on the tone of the statement. We expect the central bank to start... 16th February 2024 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Encouraging news on inflation, Indonesia elections The most recent batch of inflation figures for the region paint an encouraging picture. Headline inflation fell again in most countries last month and is now within target nearly everywhere. With... 9th February 2024 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Monetary policy forecast changes, Korea inflation We are pushing back the timing of when we think the central banks of the Philippines and Indonesia will cut interest rates. Although inflation is within target in both countries and domestic demand is... 2nd February 2024 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korean consumer weakness, SBP to sound hawkish Korea’s GDP figures published this week show that, although the economy held up relatively well last quarter, the recovery is becoming increasingly lobsided. Exports have been strong, but domestic... 26th January 2024 · 9 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Currency weakness unlikely to last, BNM on hold The recent fall in Asian currencies is likely to reverse later in the year, if as we anticipate, the US Fed starts to cut interest rates soon. A rebound in Asian currencies should create an... 19th January 2024 · 9 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea: rise in female participation rate a welcome sign Korea’s December labour market report published earlier this week show the country is making welcome progress in bringing more women into the formal labour force. Unfortunately, however, this recent... 12th January 2024 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly BoK meeting, Philippines inflation, Asian elections The Bank of Korea looks almost certain to leave interest rates unchanged at its meeting on Thursday. But with inflation falling and concerns about the economy mounting, we expect the central bank to... 5th January 2024 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Three key calls for 2024 Our three key calls for 2024 are that growth will struggle, inflation will fall and that central banks will start to cut interest rates sooner than most expect. 22nd December 2023 · 9 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Xi’s visit to Vietnam, Sri Lanka on the mend Despite the close show of friendship on display this week during President Xi Jinping of China’s visit to Vietnam, our global fracturing map has Vietnam in the “lean US camp”. By leaning more towards... 15th December 2023 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Falling fertility rates in Korea; BSP on hold The fertility rate in Korea fell to a record low of just 0.7 births per woman in the third quarter of this year – the lowest in the world. The country’s dreadful demographic outlook is the key reason... 8th December 2023 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Weak data from Korea; Indonesia and Pakistan elections This week’s data dump from Korea suggests the economy weakened at the start of Q4, supporting our view that the tightening cycle is over and that interest rate cuts could come onto the agenda soon. 1st December 2023 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Q3 strength unlikely to last, CBSL cuts again GDP growth rebounded strongly across most of Emerging Asia last quarter, but we doubt this strength will last. We expect growth to slow in the near term as weak exports and tight monetary and fiscal... 24th November 2023 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly BI on hold, Taiwan opposition parties unite The recent recovery in the rupiah means Bank Indonesia is unlikely to follow through with another rate hike at its scheduled meeting on Thursday. Meanwhile, the chances of an opposition victory in... 17th November 2023 · 8 mins read
