Asia Economics Weekly Spillovers from China’s zero-COVID to last to 2024 China’s strict border controls are holding back the tourism recovery in the rest of the region. With no sign that Beijing is in any hurry to change its zero-COVID policy, it will likely take years for... 14th October 2022 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Bank of Korea: 25bp or 50bp hike? The consensus is expecting the Bank of Korea (BoK) to increase its policy rate by 50bp at its scheduled meeting on Wednesday. But with the economy slowing sharply, we think a 25bp hike is more likely. 7th October 2022 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Coming global recession to weigh on Asian exporters The most recent trade data out of Asia have been very weak, and with the global economy heading for recession, we think the worst is still to come. 30th September 2022 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Vietnam joins the region’s tightening cycle Despite low inflation, Vietnam’s central bank (SBV) joined the region’s tightening cycle on Thursday, when it raised rates by 100bp. Further hikes are likely as the SBV looks to support the dong... 23rd September 2022 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Worries over weak won, slow recovery in Sri Lanka The continued weakness of the Korean won, which has fallen 15% against the US dollar since the start of the year, has become a growing concern for policymakers and is another reason to think the... 16th September 2022 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly New Indonesia forecasts, tourism to support Thai baht We are adjusting our inflation and policy rate forecasts for Indonesia in response to the recent fuel price hikes. Meanwhile, the recovery in Thailand’s tourism sector is gathering pace. This should... 9th September 2022 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea: slowing growth bigger concern than inflation Inflation and activity data published over the past few days have surprised to the downside, supporting our view that Korea’s tightening cycle will finish by the end of the year. 2nd September 2022 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Treading water Taiwan’s export orders data this week suggested that China’s economic weakness is spilling over to the rest of the region. Meanwhile, Bank Indonesia has done something out of the ordinary: hiking... 26th August 2022 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Bank of Korea: tightening cycle to finish by year-end With inflation at a 24-year high, the Bank of Korea (BoK) looks certain to raise interest rates again at its meeting on Thursday. We have pencilled in another 25bp hike, which would take the policy... 19th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Better news on inflation, as growth disappoints The recent national accounts data show most countries experienced a difficult second quarter. However, there was some more encouraging news on inflation – which already appears to have peaked in a few... 12th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Lift-off for the Bank of Thailand Thailand is one of the few countries in the region not to have raised interest rates this year, but that looks set to change on Wednesday. We, along with the majority of other analysts, are expecting... 5th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly “Build, Build, Build” is back, better news on inflation The president of the Philippines, Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr., earlier this week pledged to resume the “Build, Build, Build” infrastructure programme of his predecessor, Rodrigo Duterte. While... 29th July 2022 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Three key calls, encouraging signs in Sri Lanka (finally) We published our latest Emerging Asia Economic Outlook this week, contain our detailed forecasts. In this Weekly, we outline three key calls from the report. Meanwhile, Sri Lanka’s new president... 22nd July 2022 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Asian central banks turn hawkish Asian policymakers turned decidedly more hawkish this week, with the central banks of Korea, Singapore and the Philippines, all tightening monetary policy aggressively. Further hikes across the region... 15th July 2022 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Bank of Korea to play it safe The Bank of Korea (BoK) has raised interest rates by 25bp five times so far this cycle, and further hikes looked nailed on for the central bank’s meeting on Wednesday. But whereas the consensus is... 8th July 2022 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Worries over weak won, Pakistan nearing IMF deal The weakness of the Korean won, which has fallen by over 8% against the US dollar since the start of 2022, is likely to be welcomed by the country’s exporters, who face the prospect of a sharp... 1st July 2022 · 6 mins read
