APAC Commercial Property Outlook Buyer-seller mismatch will keep investment slow Asia-Pacific property will endure a slow , uneven recovery. E levated risk-free rates and soft regional growth will restrain capital appreciation, leaving income as the primary engine of returns. We... 18th September 2025 · 19 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Aug. 2025) Despite the weak employment print for August, there appears to be limited spare capacity in the labour market. Accordingly, we’re sticking to our view that the RBA will only cut rates by another 50bp... 18th September 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand GDP (Q2 2025) The sharp decline in output last quarter puts a bumper 50bp cut in play for the RBNZ at its October meeting. Risks to our forecast for a terminal rate of 2.5% are also tilted to the downside. 18th September 2025 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update China's Nvidia ban signals strong push for chip self-sufficiency The immediate consequence for China’s economy of banning the import of Nvidia chips will be limited. But the move signals a strong commitment by China’s leadership to developing cutting-edge chip... 17th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (Sep. 2025) EM GDP growth generally held up well in H1 but we think it will soften over the second half of the year as US tariffs, tighter fiscal policy and slowing wage growth bite. The inflation outlook is... 17th September 2025 · 1 min read
Asia Rapid Response Indonesia Interest Rate Announcement (Sep. 2025) 17th September 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Can Japan meet its US investment pledge? Japan will struggle to invest $550bn in foreign direct investment in the US. But we suspect that this sum also includes other forms of capital, which would make it feasible to meet the target and... 17th September 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Is the clock ticking on China’s equity rally? We think China’s equities will make further gains. 17th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Oil market to feel the weight of rising inventories Low OECD commercial oil inventories have so far provided OPEC+ some cover to raise output, but we suspect that a softening in global demand and increases in OPEC+ supply will lead to commercial oil... 16th September 2025 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update Rerouting providing less of an offset Our updated estimates suggest that trade rerouting is so far doing less to insulate Chinese exports from US tariffs than in the past. That’s largely because rerouting via Mexico hasn’t picked up since... 16th September 2025 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Focus Korea unpacked: the outlook for the year ahead Korea’s economy has rebounded strongly in recent months. However, we don’t expect this to last. Weaker exports, fading fiscal support and the continued downturn in the property market are likely to... 16th September 2025 · 10 mins read
Asia Economics Update Prabowo risks deepening Indonesia’s economic problems The recent protests in Indonesia underscore deep-seated economic frustrations. Despite solid headline GDP growth in recent years, wages have been stagnant and the middle class has been shrinking... 15th September 2025 · 4 mins read
China Rapid Response China Activity & Spending (Aug. 2025) The activity data point to a further loss of momentum last month. While some of this reflects temporary weather-related disruptions, underlying growth is clearly sliding, raising pressure on... 15th September 2025 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Government bond yields rising, tariff barriers climbing We're sceptical that the government's supply-side reform will succeed in pulling the economy out of deflation, suggesting the recent rise in government bond yields won't be sustained. And, while... 12th September 2025 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Q4 Outlook, inflation bottoms out, China-India-US relations The main message from our Q4 India Economic Outlook published this week is that while punitive US tariffs will weigh on growth over the coming quarters, India is likely to remain a relative bright... 12th September 2025 · 3 mins read
