Asia Economics Update

Five questions (and answers) on Korea’s political crisis

President Yoon Suk Yoel has rescinded his declaration of martial law, but Korea’s political crisis is far from over. The opposition are now trying to impeach the president, while financial markets...

4th December 2024 · 3 mins read

Commodities Update

The geopolitics that will shape energy markets in 2025

While energy market fundamentals point to oil prices falling a bit further and prices of European natural gas and Asian LNG remaining higher than before the Russia-Ukraine war, the uncertain...

3rd December 2024 · 5 mins read

Event

Asia Drop-In: Korea political crisis – Macro and market implications

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President Yoon Suk Yeol’s declaration of martial law – and parliament’s vote to reverse it – has plunged Asia’s fourth largest economy into crisis and triggered turmoil across

Asia Economics Update

Korea’s president declares martial law

The declaration of martial law by Korea’s president is an extraordinary step that seems likely to trigger either the suspension of Constitutional democracy in Korea or the president’s own rapid...

3rd December 2024 · 4 mins read

Africa Economics Update

Ghana’s election: after the crisis

The main presidential candidates and their parties in Ghana’s upcoming election appear to be committed to restoring fiscal discipline and getting inflation under control. That said, the opposition NDC...

3rd December 2024 · 9 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Romania Parliamentary Election

The centre-left Social Democrats (PSD) – the largest party in Romania’s current coalition – look set to win the most votes in the parliamentary election which took place on Sunday, but strong gains...

2nd December 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Mexico & the trade war, Brazil’s fiscal malaise

Mexico appears to have found the off-ramp after President-elect Donald Trump threatened to impose a 25% tariff on all imports from the country on day one of his presidency. Even so, given Mexico’s...

29th November 2024 · 7 mins read

Europe Economics Weekly

Growth, inflation and fiscal policy

Data released this week suggest that the euro-zone economy is struggling and that price pressures in the services sector are easing. Meanwhile, the European Commission published its assessment of...

29th November 2024 · 9 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

RUB under pressure, Israel ceasefire, Romania election

New US sanctions on Russia’s financial system have contributed to a sharp sell-off in the ruble this week and, while a tightening of capital controls has eased pressure on the currency over the past...

29th November 2024 · 7 mins read

India Economics Weekly

Maharashtra vote, RBI, a big call on Indian equities

For the past three years India has been the darling of global investors, but its stock market has come under pressure in recent weeks amid signs of a bubble forming and we've made a big call that...

29th November 2024 · 3 mins read

Climate Economics Monthly

States to defy Trump; COP29 wrap-up; EV crossroads

Trump’s election victory means that states will have to take the lead on climate policy to push the green transition forward, as progress on the federal level looks unlikely. Meanwhile, weakness in...

29th November 2024 · 5 mins read

China Economics Weekly

China: Fentanyl curbs, CNY intervention, tech milestone

China is likely to intensify its crackdown on fentanyl in a bid to avoid the additional 10% tariff threatened by Trump. The PBOC has drawn a line in the sand for the renminbi around 7.33/$ but would...

29th November 2024 · 6 mins read

Emerging Europe Chart Pack

Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Nov. 2024)

The weak run of activity data out of Emerging Europe continued over the past month and, while the region is more insulated from Trump’s tariff threats than some other EMs, the risks to our already...

28th November 2024 · 1 min read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire, Saudi budget, OPEC+

The Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire agreed this week may present a stepping stone towards broader de-escalation of the regional conflict. But the economic spillovers for Egypt and Jordan are likely to...

28th November 2024 · 6 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Don’t expect a big fiscal stimulus in Germany

It now seems increasingly likely that, as we had been expecting, Germany will loosen its strict fiscal rule after the upcoming general election. However, hopes of a big fiscal stimulus are likely to...

28th November 2024 · 4 mins read