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Three scenarios for the UK economy and markets if Starmer/Reeves are replaced

This note republishes our three scenarios for the economy and the financial markets should Keir Starmer and/or Rachel Reeves be replaced as Prime Minister and Chancellor. In each scenario, gilt yields initially rise and the pound weakens. The most likely longer-lasting influence is a loosening in fiscal policy that leads to higher gilt yields than otherwise and possibly a weaker pound than otherwise.

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