Paul Dales is our Chief UK Economist, with overall responsibility for our UK Economics and UK Markets services. Paul joined Capital Economics soon after it was founded in 1999 and has previously been our Chief Australia & New Zealand Economist and Senior US Economist. In 2022, he led the team that was named UK Economics Forecaster of the Year by the Sunday Times. In 2016, the Australian Financial Review judged him to be Australia’s economist of the year as “he made all the right calls in a market that most chief economists found hard to read”. In 2011, he was named Bloomberg’s US house price forecaster of the year. And in 2010, he was part of the US team that was named Wall Street Journal US forecaster of the year. Paul regularly writes articles for the London Evening Standard and frequently appears on TV and radio. He holds degrees in Banking & Finance and Economics from Loughborough and London universities and the UK FSA recognised Securities Institute Diploma.
UK Economics Update
If we’re not there already, the peak in interest rates is close
Today’s 25 basis point rise in interest rates from 4.25% to 4.50% takes rates to our long-held forecast and may be the last hike, although one or two more hikes are possible. We suspect the subsequent...