UK Economics Weekly Banking strains will amplify tightening in credit conditions Even before the turmoil in the banking sector, UK banks were planning on sharply reducing the amount of credit available to households. The recent strains in the banking sector will amplify the... 31st March 2023 · 5 mins read
Climate Economics Update Voltaire would despair of the UK’s climate strategy The “Powering up Britain” plan presented by the UK government this week highlights the benefits and limitations of official involvement in reducing emissions. On the one hand, the plans to reduce the... 31st March 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Data Response GDP (Q4 Final) The final Q4 2022 GDP data suggested the economy was even more resilient in 2022 than we previously thought, as the government absorbed some of the hit to households from high inflation. But we still... 31st March 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Mar.) House prices fell for a seventh consecutive month in February, taking the total fall from their peak in August to 4.6%. With house prices still significantly overvalued in today’s higher mortgage rate... 31st March 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Markets Chart Book Pound a surprising beneficiary of banking concerns Even though equity prices in the UK have fallen further than in the US and the euro-zone since the US bank SVB failed and the European bank Credit Swisse was taken over, the pound has strengthened... 30th March 2023 · 10 mins read
Global Economic Outlook From cost of living crisis to banking crisis? The strongest headwind for the global economy has shifted from an energy crisis and the related squeeze on real incomes to a potential banking crisis and associated drag on credit. Since banks are... 30th March 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Chart Book Yields stabilise, but banking crisis may slow recovery Yields have stabilised since the start of the year, with the 8bps rise in equivalent yields over January and February much smaller than the 64bps increase over the final two months of 2022. And with... 30th March 2023 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Update No flight in bank deposits, but bank lending growth easing While households and businesses took further advantage of rising interest rates in February by moving money into bank accounts with higher rates, they are not withdrawing money from the overall... 30th March 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Book Downturn moderates, but outlook remains challenging The partial reversal of the spike in mortgage rates following the “mini” budget has helped to stem the deterioration in housing market demand. Our measure of the average quoted mortgage rate has... 30th March 2023 · 10 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Feb.) Net lending to property turned negative in February, as investors held back in the face of falling capital values. But the decline was small and even though the recent banking crisis will lead to some... 29th March 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Money & Credit (Feb.) February’s money and credit data suggest that higher interest rates were a further drag on lending in February, particularly in the housing market. That’s before the effects of the recent concerns... 29th March 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Feb.) Reflecting the partial unwinding of the spike in mortgage rates following the “mini” budget, mortgage approvals rose to their highest level for three months in February. However, with mortgage rates... 29th March 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economic Outlook Recession needed to solve the inflation problem While CPI inflation will fall from 10.4% to around 3.5% this year, we think a recession involving a peak-to-trough fall in real GDP of around 1.0% is needed to ensure that domestic price pressures... 28th March 2023 · 27 mins read
