Asset Allocation Update

The relative outlook for US and UK markets

We think that both the Fed and the BoE are finished hiking interest rates and will cut by more than investors are discounting over the next couple of years. We also expect the US and UK economies to...

UK Housing Market Update

Interest rate hold won’t provide immediate relief

Despite ending the interest rate hiking cycle today, the Monetary Policy Committee succeeded in convincing financial markets that interest rates will remain high for some time. As market interest rate...

UK Economics Update

Interest rates are at their peak

The surprise decision by the Bank of England to leave interest rates unchanged at 5.25% today probably means that rates are already at their peak. We think rates will stay at this peak of 5.25% for...

UK Commercial Property Update

Financial conditions still point to weaker construction

Commercial construction surveys have shown improving activity in recent months, despite high interest rates and a slowing economy. Our Financial Conditions Indices (FCIs) suggest that might be because...

UK Economics Rapid Response

Bank of England Policy Announcement (21st Sep. 2023)

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Public Finances (Aug. 2023)

August's public finances figures continued the recent run of better-than-expected news on the fiscal position. So while the Chancellor has ruled out tax cuts in the Autumn Statement on 22nd November...

Climate Economics Update

Rishi Sunak draws his UK climate battle lines

The news that UK Prime Minster Sunak is set to further dilute the government’s climate policies demonstrates that when the political going gets tough, climate policies are the first to fall by the...

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Consumer Prices (Aug. 2023)

The unambiguously good CPI inflation figures for August increase the chances that the Bank of England decides to leave interest rates at 5.25% tomorrow, but we still think one final 25 basis point...

UK Housing Market Chart Pack

UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Sep. 2023)

Our forecast that the Bank of England won’t start cutting interest rates until the second half of 2024 means mortgage rates are likely to stay between 5.5% and 6.0% until mid-2024. While transactions...

UK Economic Outlook

A protracted peak

A slower fall in core inflation than in the US or the euro-zone will mean that the Bank of England keeps interest rates on hold at the probable peak of 5.50% for longer than the US Fed or the ECB. But...

UK Economics Weekly

Employment starting to buckle

We’ve been encouraged by the signs that employment is weakening and the labour market is loosening a bit more markedly. What’s more, forward-looking indicators point to employment growth deteriorating...

UK Commercial Property Update

Record fall in passing rents highlights office weakness

The surprising strength of office market rents looks to reflect the increased use of incentives. Indeed, passing rents have seen a sharp decline, with all-office annual growth recently falling to a...

BoE Watch

One last hike

We think that a 25 basis point (bps) rise in interest rates, from 5.25% to 5.50%, at the Bank of England’s policy meeting on Thursday 21st September will be the last hike in this cycle and that sticky...

UK Housing Market Update

RICS Residential Market Survey (Aug.)

Depressed activity remains consistent with falling house prices. The further deterioration of the RICS survey figures in August suggest the peak in mortgage rates seen in July are continuing to...

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK GDP (Jul. 2023)

The 0.5% m/m fall in real GDP in July could possibly mean that the mild recession we have been expecting has begun. Even so, with wage growth still uncomfortably strong, we suspect the Bank of England...