The preliminary estimate of Q2 GDP on Tuesday looks set to show that the economic recovery has re-gained some momentum. However, the recent strength of the survey data has not been borne out fully in the official data that has already been released. Accordingly, we think that quarterly GDP growth only accelerated from 0.4% in Q1 to 0.6% or so – a respectable figure, but certainly not one that is going to rush the MPC into raising interest rates.
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