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This service provides detailed analysis and independent forecasts for the UK economy and financial markets, offering both rapid responses to new data and developments, and more in-depth coverage of key themes, current trends, and future developments.

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Key Forecasts

Main Economic & Market Forecasts

Latest

Q4 2022

Q1 2023

Q2 2023

Q3 2023

Q4 2023

2022

2023

2024

GDP (%q/q/y/y)

-0.3%(+1.9%)

+0.2%(+0.6%)

-0.4%(-0.4%)

-0.6%(-1.1%)

-0.6%(-1.4%)

-0.5%(-2.1%)

4.2

-1.3

0.5

CPI Inflation (%)

(+10.5) Dec

10.7

9.9

7.8

6.4

4.7

9.1

7.1

2.9

Unemp Rate (%)

3.7% Nov

3.7

3.8

4.6

5.3

5.5

3.7

4.8

5.4

Bank Rate* (%)

4.00

3.50

4.25

4.50

4.50

4.50

3.50

4.50

3.00

QE Stock* (£bn)

840

856

830

820

770

755

856

755

665

10-yr Gilt* (%)

3.07

3.67

3.08

2.97

2.86

2.75

3.67

2.75

2.50

$/£*

1.22

1.20

1.20

1.12

1.16

1.20

1.20

1.20

1.25

€/£*

1.09

1.13

1.13

1.12

1.12

1.11

1.13

1.11

1.12

Sources: Capital Economics, Refinitiv. * End period.

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