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Key Forecasts

Main Economic & Market Forecasts

Latest

Q2 2023

Q3 2023

Q4 2023

Q1 2024

Q2 2024

Q3 2024

Q4 2024

2023

2024

2025

GDP (%q/q/y/y)

+0.1%(+0.2%)

+0.1%(+0.2%)

-0.1%(+0.3%)

-0.3%(-0.2%)

-0.2%(-0.5%)

+0.4%(-0.2%)

+0.5%(+0.4%)

+0.5%(+1.2%)

0.1

0.2

1.8

CPI Inflation (%)

(+8.7) Apr

8.1

6.1

3.8

3.2

1.4

1.5

1.1

7.0

1.8

1.1

Unemp Rate (%)

3.9% Mar

4.1

4.1

4.8

5.0

4.8

4.4

4.2

4.2

4.6

4.2

Bank Rate* (%)

4.50

4.75

5.25

5.25

5.25

5.25

4.75

4.50

5.25

4.50

3.00

QE Stock* (£bn)

812

810

760

750

740

710

675

665

750

665

535

10-yr Gilt* (%)

4.15

4.15

4.08

4.00

3.81

3.63

3.44

3.25

4.00

3.25

3.00

$/£*

1.25

1.25

1.19

1.12

1.15

1.19

1.22

1.25

1.12

1.25

1.25

€/£*

1.16

1.16

1.14

1.12

1.12

1.12

1.12

1.12

1.12

1.12

1.12

Sources: Capital Economics, Refinitiv. * End period.

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