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This service provides detailed analysis and independent forecasts for the UK economy and financial markets, offering both rapid responses to new data and developments, and more in-depth coverage of key themes, current trends, and future developments.

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Key Forecasts

Main Economic & Market Forecasts

 

Latest

Q3 2022

Q4 2022

Q1 2023

Q2 2023

Q3 2023

Q4 2023

2022

2023

2024

GDP (%q/q/y/y)

+0.2%(+2.9%)

-0.2%(+2.3%)

-0.2%(+0.5%)

-0.7%(-0.9%)

-0.6%(-1.7%)

-0.3%(-1.8%)

+0.2%(-1.5%)

4.4

-1.5

1.3

CPI Inflation (%)

+9.9 (Aug)

10.1

10.3

9.6

6.4

5.2

4.1

9.0

6.3

2.5

Unemp Rate (%)

3.6% (Jul)

3.7

3.9

4.3

4.9

5.3

5.4

3.8

5.0

5.5

Bank Rate* (%)

2.25

2.25

4.25

5.00

5.00

5.00

5.00

4.25

5.00

3.25

QE Stock* (£bn)

857

855

910

895

880

830

820

910

820

730

10-yr Gilt* (%)

4.01

4.23

4.25

4.13

4.00

3.88

3.75

4.25

3.75

3.00

$/£*

1.12

1.10

1.05

1.05

1.05

1.08

1.10

1.05

1.10

1.22

€/£*

1.14

1.12

1.11

1.14

1.17

1.16

1.16

1.11

1.16

1.16

Sources: Capital Economics, Refinitiv. * End period.

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