This month’s MPC vote will probably be split for the first time this year. While only a minority will vote for a rate rise, the risk of a hike this year has risen. Indeed, Mark Carney will probably use the Inflation Report to continue to prepare expectations for a hike. But the majority of the Committee will want to wait for inflation to pick up before considering a rise. And if there are firmer signs of a productivity rebound by then, rates may not rise until some way into next year.
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