UK Economics Update The market consequences of Reeves/Starmer’s potential demise Although the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, succeeded in reducing gilt yields by 5-15 basis points and raising the pound by 0.3% after the Budget, the chances of a gilt market sell-off remain high... 2nd December 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Autumn Budget 2025 Checklist This checklist helps clients track the policies and forecasts announced in the Chancellor’s Autumn Budget at 12:30pm (GMT) on Wednesday 26 th November. Read our Previews here. We will send a Rapid... 24th November 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Will gilt yields climb further after next week’s UK Budget? We think gilt yields are more likely to fall than rise in the immediate aftermath of the Budget on 26th November. But the chances of an adverse gilt market reaction remain high, and the Budget poses... 21st November 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update A pause in BoE interest rate cuts, not the end The Bank of England stressed that today’s decision to leave interest rates at 4.00% is a pause in the downward trend in interest rates rather than the end. With a tightening in fiscal policy in the... 6th November 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update CE UK Wage Indicator suggests pay growth is stuck at 5% Our CE UK Wage Indicator extracts the overall signal from a range of measures of wage growth and suggests that while pay growth probably isn’t rising as fast as the official data suggest, it isn’t... 4th November 2025 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Update Food inflation is close to its peak We think food inflation is close to its peak and that it will fall next year. Not only will this help to bring down CPI inflation, it will also assist in easing inflation expectations. This may... 21st October 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Europe being left behind in the AI boom While huge investment in AI has been driving US GDP growth this year, Europe has seen a negligible boost to investment. And it seems unlikely that AI investment in Europe will increase by much in the... 14th October 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Why are the UK’s borrowing costs higher than France’s? The UK’s high borrowing costs relative to those of France appears to reflect differences in monetary policy and its higher inflation rate, rather than greater fiscal concerns. As inflation in the UK... 9th October 2025 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Update UK Car finance refunds slim compensation with tax rises coming The possible £8.2bn of compensation for the mis-selling of car finance will be a nice windfall for some households. But it’s much smaller than the similar payments of £38.3bn in the 2010s and will... 8th October 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update BoE unlikely to cut interest rates again this year While leaving interest rates at 4.00% today (as expected) and signalling that rates will still fall from here, the Bank of England reiterated its concerns over rising inflation. As a result, we... 18th September 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update What could trigger a fiscal crisis in the UK? Many of the conditions which have led to fiscal crises in the past are now in place. This does not mean a fiscal crisis in the UK is imminent or inevitable. The missing ingredient is a trigger. If a... 5th September 2025 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Update UK Versus the Euro-zone in Charts Over the next 18 months, we expect CPI inflation and interest rates in the UK to fall closer to the euro-zone equivalents. And even though it has its own problems, the UK’s fiscal situation is not as... 4th September 2025 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Which taxes could (and should) the UK Chancellor raise? If the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, is going to continue to meet her fiscal rule with a buffer of £9.9bn, she will probably have to raise £18-28bn in the Autumn Budget, mostly via higher taxes. We... 2nd September 2025 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Update How much will the UK Chancellor need to raise in the Budget? Our latest estimate suggests the Chancellor will need to raise £18-28bn in the Budget to avoid breaking her fiscal rules and to maintain her £9.9bn buffer. With Labour MPs not amenable to spending... 2nd September 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Prop to UK inflation from linked prices will fade Even though the components of inflation that are directly linked to past inflation rates have played a big role in the recent rebound in CPI inflation, we think their influence will fade over the next... 1st September 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Possible UK landlord tax a headwind to supply and tailwind to rents If the Chancellor were to apply National Insurance tax to rental income in the Autumn Budget, it could further restrain the supply of rental properties and push up rents by more than otherwise. 28th August 2025 · 4 mins read
