UK Economics Update Bank of England leaning a bit more towards rate hikes rather than cuts While leaving interest rates at 3.75% today as widely expected, the Bank of England suggested it is more concerned about the upsides to inflation from the leap in energy prices triggered by the... 19th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Which European countries are most exposed to higher energy prices? The rise in energy prices resulting from the Iran conflict will have an adverse impact on most European economies. In the euro-zone, Germany and Italy are more exposed than France, though Germany has... 17th March 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update How will the UK government respond to higher energy prices? With the UK’s public finances shaky, we doubt the Middle East conflict will provoke a large-scale fiscal rescue package like that seen in 2022 even in more extreme scenarios in which the conflict... 12th March 2026 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update Strategic reserves are no substitute for an open Strait A record-breaking release of emergency oil reserves could cushion a lack of supply from the Middle East and provide some relief to oil prices. However, this would prove temporary with prices likely to... 11th March 2026 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update What could the Middle East conflict mean for the UK economy? Our three scenarios show what the Middle East conflict could mean for petrol prices, utility prices, CPI inflation, GDP growth and interest rates in the UK. All of our coverage of the macro and market... 11th March 2026 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Scenarios for the Iran war & the macro impact This note assesses the macro and commodity‑market implications of three potential scenarios for the Iran war. In the most benign – a severe but short‑lived conflict – the effects on GDP, inflation and... 10th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Commodities Update Modelling the scale of the energy market disruption This Update introduces our framework for estimating the scale of disruption to energy flows from events in the Middle East as well as three scenarios about how the conflict could play out from here... 9th March 2026 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Update What next for UK petrol and utility prices, inflation and interest rates We’ve refreshed our scenarios for what the Middle East conflict could mean for CPI inflation and also fleshed out what the leap in energy prices could mean for petrol prices, utility prices and... 5th March 2026 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Update UK industry, hotels and retail vulnerable to rising energy costs The recent rise in the UK wholesale gas price due to the events in the Middle East, so far, points to only a modest rise in firms’ energy costs. But industry and those services sectors hit hardest by... 5th March 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Slower UK interest rate cuts more likely than rate hikes While parallels are being made with the energy price shock caused by the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, the rise in energy prices as a result of the conflict in the Middle East has so far been smaller... 5th March 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update UK Fiscal Statement: Extra headroom may soon be wiped out The Chancellor didn’t announce any major new policies in her fiscal statement and, on the face of it, has a bit more money to play with come the Budget in the autumn. But that could be swamped by... 3rd March 2026 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Update BoE particularly sensitive to energy price risks With actual CPI inflation and inflation expectations both still above target-consistent rates, the Bank of England is likely to be more sensitive to the upside risks to inflation caused by the recent... 2nd March 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update The consequences of the Middle East conflict The global economic impact of conflict in the Middle East will hinge on its effect on energy markets. If oil stays near $70-$80 per barrel, DM inflation will be only about 0.2-0.3 percentage points... 2nd March 2026 · 8 mins read
Global Economics Update Questions & answers on the new US tariff regime The imposition of a 10% Section 122 tariff on all countries leaves the weighted-average US tariff rate about 3.5%-points lower than was the case under the IEEPA framework, although the difference will... 23rd February 2026 (Updated 24th February 2026) · 8 mins read
UK Economics Update UK Fiscal Statement Preview: Possible flashpoint for Starmer/Reeves The Chancellor’s fiscal statement to Parliament on Tuesday 3rd March has the potential to be another flashpoint for Prime Minister Starmer and Chancellor Reeves. But whether Starmer/Reeves hang on or... 18th February 2026 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update What the “Starmer drama” means for Gilts and Sterling Keir Starmer appears to have fended off the latest challenge to his leadership, but his premiership hangs by a thread. This Update examines what previous political episodes can tell us about what his... 11th February 2026 · 5 mins read
