Global Economics Update Tariffs: where we stand and potential flashpoints The recent climbdown has left the effective US tariff on the rest of the world at around 15% as opposed to the 27% which was threatened at the height of this year’s trade war. While this is still the... 13th May 2025 · 8 mins read
Equities Update Recent “trade deal” a sideshow in the UK stock market We don’t foresee further common-currency outperformance of MSCI’s UK Index vis-à-vis its USA Index, which has largely been a function of their compositions and the strength of cable since Donald Trump... 13th May 2025 · 8 mins read
Global Economics Update A truce in the US-China trade war The US and China have each suspended for 90 days all but 10% of their Liberation Day tariffs and cancelled other retaliatory tariffs. This is a substantial de-escalation. However, the US still has... 12th May 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update UK-US trade deal is not a big deal The UK-US trade deal announced by President Trump and Prime Minister Starmer today won’t make a big difference to the UK economy as a whole, although it is more significant for certain sectors such as... 8th May 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update More UK rate cuts coming, but not as quickly as investors expected The Bank of England predictably cut interest rates from 4.50% to 4.25% today and gave the impression that it will continue to cut rates at the current pace of 25 basis points (bps) every quarter. As a... 8th May 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Global Trade Stress Monitor To cut through the noise surrounding tariff impacts, we’ve pinpointed seven key stages in the global trade cycle – tracking in real time how each is responding to tariffs. This tool helps clients... 13th May 2025 · 0 mins read
Global Economics Update Mapping out trade war scenarios President Trump’s trade war has created material downside risks for the global economy. Our forecasts assume that tariffs on most countries outside China will stay at 10% and retaliation by other... 10th April 2025 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Update Risks tilted towards faster falls in UK inflation and interest rates Despite President Trump’s latest decision to pause the US’s “reciprocal” tariff regime for 90 days, there is still a real risk that the second-order effects of higher US tariffs on the UK economy are... 10th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Answering your questions about Liberation Day tariffs We hosted two online Drop-In sessions on 3rd April to discuss the fallout from President Trump’s Liberation Day tariff announcement. (See a recording here.) This Update contains answers to some of the... 3rd April 2025 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Update Scenarios of what US tariffs mean for the UK economy Our scenarios of how different rates of US tariffs on UK exports could influence the UK are designed to provide clients with some real-time context when President Trump announces tariffs tonight... 2nd April 2025 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update The implications of US vehicle tariffs In this Update, we answer several key questions about how the announced 25% tariffs on US imports of autos and parts might affect the global economy and the US itself. Mexico, Slovakia and Korea are... 27th March 2025 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Update BoE may pause the rate cutting cycle, but not for long While leaving interest rates at 4.50% today, the Bank of England seemed less committed to continuing to cut rates by 25bps every quarter. We had already been pondering this possibility and today’s... 20th March 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update CE UK Employment Indicator signals cooling not collapse Our new CE UK Employment Indicator, which extracts the overall signal from a range of measures of employment, suggests that while employment growth has continued to slow in Q1 this year, it is cooling... 19th March 2025 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Is the US bloc splintering? The events of the past two weeks have called into question whether the US is severing ties not just with adversaries such as China but also allies, including Canada, Mexico and the European Union... 4th March 2025 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Update UK inflation risks and reassurances It is very unusual for the Bank of England to be cutting interest rates when inflation is above the 2% target and is expected to rise further. There’s a growing risk, then, that inflation fears will... 27th February 2025 · 7 mins read
Event UK Drop-In: Spring Fiscal Forecast reaction – Macro and market implications of Reeves’ statement 1743001200 Our senior economists hosted this special online briefing shortly after Rachel Reeves delivered her Spring Forecast, to answer client questions about the macro a
