Global Economics Update Deciphering central banks’ muddled messages We recently hosted an online Drop-In to review the latest Fed, Bank of England and ECB decisions and what their communications imply. (Recording here.) This Update provides answers to the questions... 31st July 2026 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Update BoE rate hikes may remain more a threat than a reality Even though the Bank of England again talked up the possibility of interest rate hikes while leaving rates at 3.75% today, we think rates are more likely to stay on hold this year and be cut to 3.00%... 30th July 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Burnham’s ambitions will soon collide with fiscal reality The PM has so far outlined ambitious plans that might cost over £45bn (1.5% of GDP). But market constraints and his commitment not to hike the big three taxes means his ambitions will soon collide... 29th July 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update What is the future of US tariffs? The “Section 122” global tariff imposed by the Trump administration after the Supreme Court struck down its IEEPA tariffs (including those from “Liberation Day”) in February will expire on Friday, to... 23rd July 2026 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Key lessons from the Iran war so far The Iran war has (already) lasted longer than we initially assumed in our base case but the disruption to energy markets and hit to the global economy have been more limited. This resilience will be... 21st July 2026 · 8 mins read
Global Economics Update What are the potential implications of Houthi attacks? Given reports of Houthi threats to close the Bab el-Mandeb passage to the Red Sea and to attack Saudi oil infrastructure, we are publishing an updated version of this note originally sent on 31st... 16th July 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update The implications of a renewed closure of the Strait The global economy has so far weathered the energy shock created by the war in Iran, but a sharp drawdown in oil inventories has left stocks close to critically low levels. The oil market therefore... 16th July 2026 · 5 mins read
Bonds Update Gilt yields to fall despite political headwinds Despite incoming PM Burnham facing the tricky task of maintaining investor confidence against a fragile fiscal backdrop and the potential for a prolonged US-Iran conflict, we expect Gilt yields to... 14th July 2026 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update How much extra borrowing will the bond market tolerate? The markets would probably tolerate a rise in borrowing provided it is not too big (perhaps of up to about £15bn or 0.5% of GDP), it is primarily to invest, and it comes alongside a credible... 1st July 2026 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update UK fiscal risks significant, but not unique The UK’s political changes have once again drawn attention to its fiscal constraints, which will limit the new PM’s room for manoeuvre. But the UK is not alone. Several other major economies face... 29th June 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update BoE talks a good hawkish game, but is unlikely to deliver The Bank of England’s repeated pledge that it is “ready to act as necessary” (i.e. hike interest rates), alongside its decision to keep rates unchanged at 3.75%, was no surprise. But provided the US... 18th June 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update How will the UK government raise defence spending? An increase in defence spending could represent a significant source of extra demand in the UK. But the UK’s weak fiscal position suggests higher defence spending will need to be mostly funded by tax... 26th May 2026 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update Seasonal dynamics to support natural gas prices in H2 The fact that Asian buyers of LNG from the Middle East have so far curtailed demand has helped to limit the upward pressure on natural gas prices. But even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens soon, a... 19th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Assessing the effects of an extreme war scenario In this Update, we explore an extreme scenario in which the Iran war escalates beyond the assumptions in our published baseline and adverse scenarios. With Brent crude jumping higher and staying at... 14th May 2026 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Update What would a new PM mean for the UK economy and markets? With Starmer’s premiership looking on the precipice, we are resending this analysis we published on Friday 8th May that highlights the main policies of his potential replacements and what they might... 8th May 2026 · 10 mins read
UK Economics Update BoE on hold for now, but rate hike risks are rising The Bank of England’s further hawkish tilt while leaving interest rates unchanged at 3.75% suggests the chances of near-term rate hikes are rising. If oil prices fall back to about $95pb as in our... 30th April 2026 · 3 mins read
