The Bank of England stressed that today’s decision to leave interest rates at 4.00% is a pause in the downward trend in interest rates rather than the end. With a tightening in fiscal policy in the Budget on 26th November on the cards, the Bank will probably resume cutting rates in the coming months. We still think rates will be cut to 3.00% next year rather than to the 3.50% priced into the financial markets.
We’re hosting a 20-minute online briefing at 3pm GMT today to discuss the issues that will influence the path of UK interest rates from here. (Register here.) And on 19th November, we'll be online for 20 minutes at 3pm GMT to answer questions about what the Budget means for the UK economy, UK housing and the financial markets. (Register here.)
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