Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Tusk’s first 100 days, CBRT’s pre-election surprise The new Polish government (which marks its 100 day milestone today) has successfully unblocked EU funds and delivered a wave of optimism that has helped Poland's financial markets outperform those in... 22nd March 2024 · 7 mins read
Emerging Asia Economics Weekly Political risk in Vietnam; SBP’s hawkish hold One of Vietnam’s key appeals to foreign investors is its political stability relative to other low-income countries in the region. Given this, the unexplained ousting of President Vo Van Thuong of... 22nd March 2024 · 8 mins read
India Economics Weekly Election countdown, our new EM risk indicators We've entered the final few weeks before India's general election kicks off. All the signs point to another win for Prime Minister Modi's BJP but what really matters for the economy is whether the... 22nd March 2024 · 3 mins read
India Economics Focus The general election: what is at stake? The biggest democratic exercise in history will shortly take place as India votes in its general election, starting on 19 th April. Given client interest, we are resending our Election Primer, first... 19th March 2024 · 12 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Putin 5.0: what to look out for now Vladimir Putin secured a record victory in Russia’s presidential election over the weekend. The focus now will be on whether this emboldens Putin to devote more resources to the war effort, whether... 18th March 2024 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly The good and bad of Egypt’s policy shift, Aramco transfer Last week’s policy moves in Egypt have raised concerns about a fresh surge in inflation, particularly after the jump recorded in the February CPI data. But while inflation may increase again in March... 14th March 2024 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus What would Trump 2.0 mean for Mexico? The impact of a second Trump presidency on Mexico’s economy would depend to a large extent on whether the USMCA deal remains intact or Mexico finds itself subject to US import tariffs. If the latter... 12th March 2024 · 15 mins read
Canada Economics Update Trump 2.0 poses new headwinds for Canada The key risk for Canada’s economy from the US presidential election is that a Trump administration could pull out of the USMCA, leaving Canada subject to any US import tariffs. To avoid that, Canada... 11th March 2024 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Falling inflation still likely to prompt Fed cuts soon Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony struck a notably less hawkish tone than we have heard recently from some of his colleagues. And with the economic data this week providing little... 8th March 2024 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Sheinbaum’s 100 commitments, inflation worries The recently-unveiled policy plans from Claudia Sheinbaum, the frontrunner to become Mexico’s next president, are aimed at building on President López Obrador’s legacy, but her proposals are likely to... 8th March 2024 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly HUF struggles, Russia’s election coming into view The dispute between the Hungarian central bank and the government heated up further this week, which has fuelled a narrative that threats to central bank independence are responsible for the recent... 8th March 2024 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Russia: what to watch under Putin 5.0 The outcome of Russia’s presidential election taking place over 15-17 th March is not in doubt: Putin is all but certain to secure a fifth term until 2030. But the election still has significance... 7th March 2024 · 21 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s orthodox policy shift back underway with IMF The announcement of an agreement over a new IMF package for Egypt, coming on the back of the rate hike and devaluation earlier today, represents a shift towards more orthodox policymaking. While it is... 6th March 2024 · 4 mins read
Event EM Drop-In: Will Egypt's reforms fix the economic crisis? 1709722800 The Egyptian central bank has announced steps to tackle its economic crisis, including a large devaluation and a bumper interest rate hike. But will it be enough?
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Interest Rate Hike & Devaluation The announcement minutes ago from the Central Bank of Egypt that it has devalued the pound and hiked interest rates by a bumper 600bp, to 27.25%, shows that policymakers are committed to the turn back... 6th March 2024 · 2 mins read
China Economics Focus China’s economic roadmap for 2024 The policy agenda laid out at the National People’s Congress today is a reasonably pro-growth one. The new fiscal plans are supportive, monetary policy continues to have an easing bias, and the... 5th March 2024 · 15 mins read