US Rapid Response US Section 122 Tariff Ruling The narrow Court of International Trade (CIT) ruling against the Trump administration’s 10% Section 122 tariffs does not have any immediate implications for the US effective tariff rate, but it raises... 8th May 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italy: fiscal risks rising After three years of remarkable stability in Italy, a decline in Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s popularity and higher energy prices mean political and fiscal risks are rising again. 7th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: early thoughts on Lula vs. Bolsonaro Brazil’s presidential election on 4th October is shaping up to be a close race between President Lula and right-wing challenger Flavio Bolsonaro. While Bolsonaro would likely take a tougher stance on... 6th May 2026 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update West Bengal victory is pivotal for PM Modi’s BJP The key takeaway from the results of the recent round of state elections – West Bengal in particular – is that Prime Minister Modi’s BJP is weathering the energy shock without a meaningful loss of... 5th May 2026 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Making sense of BanRep’s hold, Mexico’s export boom Colombia’s central bank (BanRep) defied expectations for another rate hike this week, opting to keep rates unchanged instead, which may raise concerns that the Board is taking President Petro’s... 1st May 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Central Europe’s resilience, Polish inflation overshoots The April survey data for Central Europe published this week suggest that the region is weathering the early effects of the Iran war better than the euro-zone. But the surveys also point to a sharp... 1st May 2026 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Focus China’s rising trade surplus and its global implications China’s trade surplus has reached a record 1% of world GDP and looks set to rise further. It’s been driven, in part, by a surge in China’s exports – China has gained export market share across both... 30th April 2026 · 18 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania: political turmoil adds to rebalancing challenge The vote of no confidence in Romania’s Prime Minister next week looks set to usher in renewed political instability. That will make it much harder to pass the fiscal austerity needed to tackle the... 30th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How long can Iran hold out? The US blockade has cut Iran’s financial lifeline and strains are growing in its balance of payments. Estimates of Iran’s accessible FX reserves suggest that these cover no more than three months’ of... 29th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update A primer on Colombia’s high-stakes election Colombians head to the polls on 31st May in an election which has major implications for the outlook for the economy and financial markets. This Update sets out the state of play, highlights the key... 29th April 2026 · 8 mins read
China Economics Update Economic security tops Politburo agenda The Politburo has just held its triannual gathering to discuss the economy. The post-meeting communique suggests the leadership has turned more positive on current conditions and sees less of a case... 28th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SARB can resist rate hikes, Nigeria reshuffle, E. Africa fuel This week’s latest comments from SARB Governor Kganyago reaffirmed the growing risks of interest rate hikes. For now, though, a high policy rate and a strong external position are reasons we think... 24th April 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungary’s cabinet, political turmoil, Q1 GDP Hungary’s incoming Tisza government has made positive steps with the announcement of key cabinet posts, including foreign and finance ministers. Political developments elsewhere in the region provide... 24th April 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Rethinking Hungary’s path to the euro The Tisza government has made euro accession a key part of its economic plans. Its goal of being ready to enter by 2030 looks optimistic given that Hungary is some way away from meeting the Maastricht... 23rd April 2026 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (April 2026) Our Emerging Europe Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The energy shock presents a headwind to most of Emerging Europe by worsening... 21st April 2026 · 1 min read
