Africa Economics Weekly China trade access, SA unemployment, Kenya budget China’s pledge to provide tariff-free access to imports from Africa is a clear effort to strengthen ties as the US disengages from the region, and also appears to be a concessions to African leaders... 13th June 2025 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM fiscal risks - a story of growing country differences EM sovereign debt risks remain much higher than in the pre-pandemic period. There are positive stories of declining risk in those EMs undergoing reforms (e.g. Argentina) and low fiscal risks in the... 12th June 2025 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: Floods in Nigeria, SA Budget and inflation target Flooding in Nigeria in recent weeks has claimed scores of lives and, while the economic hit should be limited, it could result in interest rates being kept higher for longer. More fundamentally, the... 6th June 2025 · 6 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa GDP (Q1 2025) South Africa’s muted 0.1% q/q growth in the first quarter of the year on the back of a downwardly revised 0.4% expansion in Q4 of last year suggests the recovery is losing momentum. That will only... 3rd June 2025 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: Two years of Tinubu, SARB cut & inflation target Bola Tinubu marked his two year anniversary as Nigeria’s president this week by talking of new spending plans funded by foreign loans – which seems to be aimed in part at least at shoring up his... 30th May 2025 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB makes a dovish shift The South African Reserve bank resumed its interest rate easing cycle today, with a 25bp cut to 7.25%, and there was a marked dovish shift among the MPC, suggesting – as we have long thought – that... 29th May 2025 · 3 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (May. 2025) We expect economic prospects in Sub-Saharan Africa to continue to improve. The direct headwinds from the US’s protectionist shift look to be limited and terms of trade look set to improve for most... 28th May 2025 · 0 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: SA budget, SARB to cut, Transnet, Ramaphosa-Trump South Africa’s finance minister appears to have succeeded – at the third time of asking – at delivering a 2025 Budget that will make it through parliament. But it seems almost certain that tensions... 23rd May 2025 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA Budget: slippage, GNU tensions to resurface soon South Africa’s Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana’s third attempt at delivering the 2025 Budget should have enough support in parliament now, but it’s come at the cost of a slightly larger budget... 21st May 2025 · 5 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Apr.) The rise in South Africa’s headline inflation to 2.8% y/y still left it below the lower bound of the Reserve Bank’s 3-6% target range and, ordinarily, would make us more confident that the easing... 21st May 2025 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: Third time lucky for South Africa’s 2025 Budget? South Africa’s finance minister takes his third stab at delivering the 2025 Budget on Wednesday. Disputes within the ruling GNU seem to have been resolved but this may come at the cost of slippage on... 16th May 2025 · 8 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: SSA fiscal slippage, SA reforms, Ghana inflation Leaders across Sub-Saharan Africa faced with fiscal strains are embracing tax reform rather than rises to maintain fiscal consolidation efforts, but we doubt that this will be sufficient to prevent... 9th May 2025 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: South Africa 2025 Budget 3.0, Angola IMF loan? This week’s announcement that South Africa’s 2025 Budget will be tabled for a third time later this month sets the scene for a few more weeks of talks over spending restraint versus tax rises. We... 2nd May 2025 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update China’s export surge and what it means for Africa The prospect of a flood of low-cost Chinese exports to African shores may help those economies suffering from high inflation but it risks undermining the growth of domestic industry. Governments in... 1st May 2025 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: South Africa VAT hike scrapped, Zambia debt talks South Africa’s 2025 budget took a vital step forward after the Treasury scrapped its proposed VAT hike this week. This, the DA's recommitment to the GNU and the weaker-than expected inflation figures... 25th April 2025 · 5 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Mar' 25.) The larger-than-expected fall in South Africa’s headline inflation rate to 2.7% y/y in March will give the Reserve Bank more confidence that its easing cycle can resume. We expect a 25bp reduction to... 23rd April 2025 · 2 mins read
