Africa Economic Outlook Recovery stuck in low gear Sub-Saharan Africa will record a pick-up in growth over the coming years, helped by an improving external environment reducing the threat of further large currency falls as well as sovereign defaults... 27th March 2024 · 20 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB keeping up the inflation fight The South African Reserve Bank left its repo rate unchanged at 8.25% for a fifth consecutive meeting today and the continued hawkish rhetoric from Governor Kganyago supports our view that rate cuts... 27th March 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Rates preview: Nigeria to hike, South Africa to hold The South African Reserve Bank looks set to leave interest rates on hold at 8.25% next week and it now seems an easing cycle won’t begin until after May’s election, the outcome of which could even... 22nd March 2024 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Focus Will Africa unlock its potential? Sub-Saharan Africa’s enormous demographic tailwind means the region will see the fastest GDP growth rates (4-5%) of any region between now and 2050. By the middle of the century, the region’s overall... 21st March 2024 · 22 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s economy adding to the ANC’s struggles South Africa’s latest hard activity data show that the economy continued to struggle at the start of 2024, which will hardly help the ANC’s hopes of keeping its majority in parliament after May’s... 20th March 2024 · 4 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Feb.) The larger-than-expected rise in South Africa’s headline inflation rate, to 5.6% y/y, in February means that the SARB is likely to delay the start of its easing cycle until after May’s election. 20th March 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria Eurobond, SA banks and SDR increase The Nigerian naira’s latest devaluation has taken it closer to fair value and, with investor sentiment towards Nigeria improving, the government is lining up a fresh Eurobond sale. That may help to... 15th March 2024 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa metals and current account, Ghana debt Reports suggest that metal producers in South Africa are contemplating cost-cutting measures on the back of the slump in global metals prices, presenting another headwind to the modest pick-up in... 8th March 2024 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Judging the fiscal risks from upcoming EM elections This year is a particularly busy one for elections in the emerging world, and these votes raise the risk of fiscal giveaways that worsen public debt dynamics. We think the risks are greatest in... 7th March 2024 · 3 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa GDP (Q4 2023) South Africa’s economy posted a measly 0.1% q/q increase in GDP in the final quarter of last year and the latest evidence points to a soft start to 2024 too. But we still think that, with the drags... 5th March 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria rate hike, Kenya inflation, Zambia debt deal The Nigerian central bank’s 400bp interest rate hike should help provide respite to the naira and help to curb inflation. But Nigeria will need to shift away from interventionist fiscal and FX short... 1st March 2024 · 7 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) Although South Africa’s manufacturing PMI jumped in February, the sector appears to have made a soft start to the year. We still expect growth to pick up over the rest of this year as loadshedding... 1st March 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Feb. 2024) Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is likely to pick up in 2024 as the external backdrop turns more favourable and, in some places, the drag from high inflation fades. Even so, tight fiscal and... 28th February 2024 · 0 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA: assessing the implications of a lower inflation target Talk of the South African Reserve Bank’s inflation target being lowered has reared its head again. In this Update, we answer five key questions on what this could mean for the economy. In the near... 27th February 2024 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa Budget, SARB new MPC member South Africa’s finance minister recommitted to fiscal restraint in this week’s Budget, but fiscal pressures before and after May’s election are likely to derail the plans. The debt-to-GDP ratio will... 23rd February 2024 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA: election pressures will challenge austerity plans The fiscal restraint shown by South Africa’s finance minister in today’s Budget was received positively in local financial markets, but the reality is that the government will struggle to meet its... 21st February 2024 · 4 mins read
