Africa Economics Weekly

Rand weakness, Zambia hikes rates

The South African has been one of the worst performing EM currencies since the US election, a symptom of the “Trump trade”, but also sharp falls in the prices of key commodity exports. We expect the...

15th November 2024 · 6 mins read

Africa Economics Update

SA mining: onus is on reform for recovery

South Africa’s mining sector has been a struggling part of the economy for some time and, while easing logistical and electricity constraints will provide some relief, weaker commodity prices in the...

12th November 2024 · 4 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

Trump presidency to bring mixed outcomes for Africa

A shift towards trade protectionism in the US would lead to a more pronounced strengthening of the dollar, larger falls in African local currencies and make it even harder countries like Angola and...

8th November 2024 · 6 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

Kenya IMF loan, South Africa’s MTBPS, US election

South Africa’s Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) unveiled this week was positioned as a pro-growth budget, but the reality is that the government is sticking to a tight fiscal stance...

1st November 2024 · 5 mins read

Africa Chart Pack

Africa Chart Pack (Oct. 2024)

Disinflation and looser monetary policy are setting the scene for stronger growth across Sub-Saharan Africa, and we expect growth to pick up in the coming quarters. But there are several headwinds...

31st October 2024 · 0 mins read

Africa Economics Update

Godongwana talks up growth, but austerity is order of the day

The South African Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) was presented as a “pro-growth” statement, but the numbers underscore that the government has no room to loosen the fiscal stance...

30th October 2024 · 3 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

Nigeria Shell oil sale, SARB 25bp or 50bp cut next?

The Nigerian authorities rejection of Shell’s sale of its onshore oil business marked the latest attempt by a multinational to divest from Nigeria – and the prospect of lower foreign investment makes...

25th October 2024 · 5 mins read

Africa Rapid Response

South Africa Consumer Prices (Sep. '24)

The drop in South Africa’s headline inflation rate, to 3.8% y/y, in September, means that the SARB will almost certainly continue its easing cycle. The chances of a 50bp cut at its the next meeting...

23rd October 2024 · 2 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

South Africa’s MPR, Nigeria’s policy shift

The South African Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Review (MPR) released this week made clear that a recommitment to fiscal consolidation and structural reforms are key to creating extra space for...

18th October 2024 · 6 mins read

Africa Economics Update

South Africa’s lopsided economic recovery

South Africa’s economy continued to pick-up in the middle of Q3 but the recovery is taking place at different speeds across sectors; lower inflation is supporting consumer-facing sectors but industry...

16th October 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

What to expect from the BRICS+ summit

The BRICS+ summit in Russia next week is likely to see another push on expansion, mainly to close allies of China and Russia. But limited economic benefits for potential new members, divisions among...

15th October 2024 · 6 mins read

Event

Drop-In: South Africa Budget – Are the public finances really on the mend?

30th October 2024, 4:00PM GMT

South African Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana will be in a cheerful mood when he delivers the Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) on 30th October; the budget deficit

Africa Economics Update

SA: MTBPS likely to double down on austerity

South Africa’s Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana will be in the unusual position of presenting the Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) later this month against the backdrop of a sharp...

15th October 2024 · 4 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

Kenya rate cuts, SA visa reforms

Continued disinflation alongside an improved external environment mean that the 75bp interest rate cut delivered by Kenya’s central bank is likely to be followed up by further monetary loosening over...

11th October 2024 · 6 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

Mozambique’s election, SA surveys, Ghana debt deal

Mozambicans head to the polls on Wednesday with the ruling Fremilo party widely expected to hold on to power. The elections come amid growing signals that key gas projects, which are vital to the...

4th October 2024 · 5 mins read