This week’s announcement that South Africa’s 2025 Budget will be tabled for a third time later this month sets the scene for a few more weeks of talks over spending restraint versus tax rises. We think the former will probably win out, driven by an emboldened DA but, further out, fiscal slippage is the most likely outcome as the ANC tries to shore up its popularity. Meanwhile, lower oil prices have prompted Angola to explore an IMF loan but, even if this arrives and oil prices recover, poor fiscal fundamentals mean that sovereign default fears are likely to stay elevated.
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