China’s export surge and what it means for Africa

The prospect of a flood of low-cost Chinese exports to African shores may help those economies suffering from high inflation but it risks undermining the growth of domestic industry. Governments in the likes of Nigeria, with a history of employing protectionist measures, or South Africa and Kenya with more mature and ambitious manufacturing sectors may seek to defend their respective industries. But we think the others in the region that are more reliant on commodity exports and/or financing from China are likely to prioritise trade ties with China over industrialisation ambitions.