Africa Economics Update SARB holds and maintains hawkish rhetoric The South African Reserve Bank left interest rates on hold today at 8.25% and continued to emphasise that inflation risks remain tilted to the upside, suggesting that it is in no rush to begin... 21st September 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Activity Data (Jul.) South Africa’s activity data for July was relatively downbeat, and more timely data suggest that the economy is struggling to regain momentum. With loadshedding having intensified in recent weeks... 20th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Aug.) The small rise in South Africa’s headline inflation rate to 4.8% y/y in August partly reflected a fresh pick-up in core price pressures, but we doubt that this will prompt the SARB to restart its... 20th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa fiscal rules, Kenya austerity, Ghana CPI This week saw reports that South Africa’s Treasury is proposing to establish a new “fiscal anchor” in a bid to keep investors on side amid a worsening budget position. But a looser fiscal policy seems... 15th September 2023 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Update Signs of scarring in South Africa’s labour market South Africa’s unemployment rate has dropped back over the past year or so but it remains far above its pre-pandemic level. The rise in long-term unemployment, which has its roots in both cyclical and... 14th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria policy mistakes, South Africa austerity Recent interventionist actions from Nigeria’s central bank and government have heightened our fears that growing political pressures are undermining policy reforms. This could see Nigeria’s inflation... 8th September 2023 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Focus What’s behind South Africa’s growth problem? South Africa’s economy has one of the weakest growth records of any EM over the past decade and its post-pandemic recovery has been particularly disappointing. At the heart of the problem are major... 6th September 2023 · 16 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa GDP (Q2) The 0.6% q/q rise in South Africa’s GDP in Q2 was stronger than expected but more timely indicators point to a weak start to Q3. And the backdrop of severe power cuts, tight policy and worsening terms... 5th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Gabon’s coup, South Africa Q2 GDP The military coup in Gabon this week, coming so shortly after a coup in Niger, has raised further concerns about political instability and institutional frailty in the region. But we’d be wary of... 1st September 2023 · 6 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Aug.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI strengthened in August, reversing the declines seen in recent months as loadshedding became less intense. Even so, the survey still points to extremely weak growth in... 1st September 2023 · 2 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Aug. 2023) Our Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Sub-Saharan Africa is set to record its weakest growth (outside the pandemic) since 2016 this year... 31st August 2023 · 1 min read
Asset Allocation Update We think EMEA equities will continue to be a mixed bag Equities in Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA) have returned little in US$ terms so far this year. While they may fare better next year, we doubt they’ll outperform the wider emerging equity... 29th August 2023 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa fiscal issues, Ethiopia finance, Kenya debt Growing concerns about the direction of South Africa’s public finances have caused the yield curve to steepen as risk premia have risen, a trend that may continue as next year’s election approaches... 25th August 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Five key themes from the BRICS summit Efforts by the BRICS group to demonstrate an image of unity and cooperation were on full show at this week’s summit, but – aside from membership expansion – policy proposals were light and not overly... 25th August 2023 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update Africa’s slow tourism recovery sustains external strains Sub-Saharan Africa’s tourism industry has recovered slowly from the pandemic, albeit with significant variation in performance across the continent. Signs that the tourism outlook is weakening risk... 24th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Jul.) The larger-than-expected fall in South Africa’s headline inflation rate to 4.7% y/y in July leaves it within touching distance of the mid-point of the Reserve Bank’s 3-6% target range and means that... 23rd August 2023 · 2 mins read
