Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Apr.) The rise in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI last month was due to a jump in inventories, while other indicators pointed to further weakness in the sector. The country’s severe energy crisis continued... 2nd May 2023 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly MPR shining light on monetary policy thinking in SA The South African Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Review (MPR), published this week, made it clear that the central bank is increasingly incorporating fiscal risks into its interest rate projections... 28th April 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Inflation expectations fall, but reasons for caution Our dataset on inflation expectations across EMs shows some encouraging falls since 2022 and supports our view that, with EM inflation likely to fall further, monetary easing cycles will start in the... 19th April 2023 · 5 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Activity Data (Feb.) February’s weak hard activity figures out of South Africa suggest that stronger data from January were a blip and, following a contraction in GDP in Q4, increase the chances that the economy has... 19th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Mar.) South Africa’s headline inflation reading for March came in stronger than expected, at 7.1% y/y, and core inflation remains uncomfortably high for policymakers at the Reserve Bank. With persistent... 19th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Investment-lull in Nigeria, “disaster” no more in SA? The extreme weakness of FDI into Nigeria last year, shown in data published this week, underscores the scale of the economic challenges facing the new government. Without a marked turnaround in... 6th April 2023 · 5 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) The fall in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI last month paints a downbeat picture of a sector unable to escape from a severe energy crisis. The figures are consistent with manufacturing output... 3rd April 2023 · 2 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Domestic woes to drag down growth Homegrown problems in Sub-Saharan African economies exacerbated by external headwinds are likely to curtail growth this year. We think that regional GDP will expand by 2.3%, which is well below the... 31st March 2023 · 24 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Monetary policymakers in hawkish mode, debt in focus Central banks in South Africa, Kenya and Ghana all stepped up the pace of monetary tightening this week as concerns about inflation and currency weakness flared up. But we doubt that the rule of... 31st March 2023 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB’s hawks return to driver seat The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) delivered a more-aggressive-than-expected 50bp interest rate hike, to 7.75%, today as hawks returned to the majority with a bang. But while the probability of... 30th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Central banks focus on inflation and currency risks Nigeria’s central bank shrugged off the recent banking sector turmoil and kept its eye firmly focussed on tackling inflation as it hiked interest rates this week and, on balance, we think that... 24th March 2023 · 6 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Financial markets bruised, central banks hawkish Financial markets across Sub-Saharan Africa have struggled – and have underperformed their EM peers – since the global banking sector turmoil erupted. Amid broad risk-off sentiment, African sovereign... 23rd March 2023 · 10 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Feb.) The rise in South Africa’s headline inflation rate, to 7.0% y/y, in February may be a sign that the intensification of loadshedding in recent months is fuelling price pressures. So long as renewed... 22nd March 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Activity Data (Jan.) & Nigeria CPI (Feb.) January’s hard activity figures out of South Africa came in stronger than expected, reducing the chances of a technical recession. But momentum remains extremely weak. Elsewhere, the rise in inflation... 15th March 2023 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Update Struggling rand may face more near-term pain The South African rand has weakened sharply against the US dollar so far this year, markedly underperforming other emerging market (EM) currencies. We expect domestic and global headwinds to drive a... 9th March 2023 · 4 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa GDP (Q4) South Africa’s GDP fell by a sharper-than-expected 1.3% q/q in Q4, and the broad-based weakness in economic activity is unlikely to improve any time soon as severe power cuts and fiscal consolidation... 7th March 2023 · 2 mins read
