Nigeria Q2 GDP and business survey, SA inflation

A central bank survey published this week suggested that businesses in Nigeria are still downbeat on the economy, but we think slowing inflation and a more stable naira may soon bring some near-term cheer. Indeed, Nigeria’s Q2 GDP figures due on Monday should show that economic growth accelerated in Q2, to 3.2% y/y. Finally, we think the surprise sharp fall in South Africa’s July inflation print this week seals the deal for the SARB to cut interest rates by 25bp at its meeting next month. A larger 50bp move isn’t out of the question.