Africa Economics Update

SA: assessing the implications of a lower inflation target

South Africa’s Deputy Finance Minister David Masondo has today said that an announcement will be made “very soon” regarding the country’s inflation-targeting regime, suggesting that a lowering of the...

27th February 2024 · 6 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

South Africa Budget, SARB new MPC member

South Africa’s finance minister recommitted to fiscal restraint in this week’s Budget, but fiscal pressures before and after May’s election are likely to derail the plans. The debt-to-GDP ratio will...

23rd February 2024 · 7 mins read

Africa Economics Update

SA: election pressures will challenge austerity plans

The fiscal restraint shown by South Africa’s finance minister in today’s Budget was received positively in local financial markets, but the reality is that the government will struggle to meet its...

21st February 2024 · 4 mins read

Africa Data Response

South Africa Consumer Prices (Jan.)

South Africa’s headline inflation rate picked up to 5.3% y/y in January and the rise in core inflation is likely to spook an already-hawkish SARB, possibly pushing the start of an easing cycle even...

21st February 2024 · 2 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

A look ahead to South Africa’s Budget

South Africa’s Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana faces an uphill task in next week’s Budget to convince investors that the government will be able to place the public finances on a sustainable footing...

16th February 2024 · 8 mins read

Africa Economics Update

Can the SARB help South Africa’s public finances?

South Africa’s fiscal strains have seen the government explore tapping revaluation gains on the country’s FX reserves held at the SARB. Utilising these funds to pay down the government’s debt would...

15th February 2024 · 5 mins read

Africa Economics Update

South Africa ended 2023 on a weak note

South Africa’s latest hard activity data show that the economy finished last year with a whimper, but we think that easing electricity outages, weaker inflation pressures and less restrictive fiscal...

14th February 2024 · 3 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

SONA, Kenya buyback, Zambian copper

South African President Ramaphosa’s State of the Nation address this week pointed to costly welfare and healthcare expansions ahead of this year’s election. This would make the job of stabilising the...

9th February 2024 · 6 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

Naira plunges, SA budget, Uganda/Kenya late cuts

The devaluation of the naira this week may be a sign that there’s fresh impetus to Nigeria’s policy shift, which had been stalling. A key test will come at the (long-overdue) central bank meeting...

2nd February 2024 · 6 mins read

Africa Data Response

South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jan.)

South Africa’s manufacturing PMI recorded a sharp drop in January as logistics problems and weak demand weighed on activity. We still expect growth to pick up over the course of this year, but this...

1st February 2024 · 2 mins read

Africa Chart Pack

Africa Chart Pack (Jan. 2024)

Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is set to strengthen over 2024-25 as the external backdrop turns more favourable and, in some places, the drag from high inflation eases. But this boost will be...

31st January 2024 · 0 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

SA rates takeaways, Côte d’Ivoire Eurobonds

The South African MPC’s concerns expressed at this week’s meeting about an inflation resurgence look overdone, but with fiscal risks high ahead of the election, officials will continue to tread...

26th January 2024 · 5 mins read

Africa Rapid Response

South Africa Interest Rate Announcement

The South African Reserve Bank resisted responding to last month’s fall in inflation with an interest rate cut, leaving the repo rate unchanged at 8.25% today. The MPC’s message was little changed...

25th January 2024 · 2 mins read

Africa Rapid Response

South Africa Consumer Prices (Dec.)

South Africa’s headline inflation rate fell back further to 5.1% y/y in December but this is unlikely to be enough to convince the Reserve Bank to start an easing cycle tomorrow.

24th January 2024 · 2 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

SA rates, Kenya debt swap, Nigeria loans

Remarks this week from SARB Governor Kganyago increase the chances of interest rates in South Africa staying high for longer, particularly if fiscal risks build ahead of the election. Kenya, meanwhile...

19th January 2024 · 7 mins read