A brighter outlook but a fiscal shadow

Falling inflation and looser monetary policy will help GDP growth to accelerate across Sub-Saharan Africa next year. A shift towards trade protectionism in the US will hurt certain sectors in certain countries, but is unlikely to have a significant impact on overall GDP growth. The bigger challenge comes from the need to tighten fiscal policy, which we think will constrain the pace of recovery. Indeed, our forecasts for most economies lie below the consensus. Fiscal austerity will help to diminish default fears but they’re unlikely to go away. Risks are greatest in Kenya and Mozambique.