Falling inflation and looser monetary policy will help GDP growth to accelerate across Sub-Saharan Africa this year. A shift towards trade protectionism in the US will hurt certain sectors in some countries, but it is unlikely to have a significant impact on overall growth. Instead, we think the need for tight fiscal policy will be the biggest check on the pace of the recovery, a key reason why our forecasts for most economies lie below the consensus. Mozambique remains the country most at risk of sovereign default, with it facing headwinds from insecurity and the loss of US aid.
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