Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (Aug. 2025) Our View: The Q2 GDP figures out so far point to robust growth across much of the emerging world, but we think growth will soften over the second half of the year. While growth across much of Asia... 14th August 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor EM Financial Risk Monitor (Jul. 2025) Most EM currencies have strengthened against the dollar in recent months. Limited external vulnerabilities – our aggregate EM currency crisis risk indicator remains near multi-decade lows – have... 31st July 2025 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor CAP: China’s industry takes a hit Our China Activity Proxy suggests growth slowed further in May, with US tariffs weighing on industrial activity. While services growth did pick up, that seems to have been driven by a temporary boost... 24th June 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM fiscal risks - a story of growing country differences EM sovereign debt risks remain much higher than in the pre-pandemic period. There are positive stories of declining risk in those EMs undergoing reforms (e.g. Argentina) and low fiscal risks in the... 12th June 2025 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Focus The implications of lower quality UK economic data Today’s announcement of a two-week delay to the release of July's retail sales figures due to quality concerns is the latest in a series of errors, delays and suspensions that have undermined... 27th May 2025 · 20 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor EM Financial Risk Monitor (Apr. 2025) Higher US import tariffs and softening expectations for global growth have caused large capital outflows from EMs. But our currency crisis risk indicators suggest that EMs are well placed to weather... 30th April 2025 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China stimulus: your questions answered China’s recent stimulus announcements are still at the top of many investors’ minds, at least judging by the high level of client interest in the online briefing we ran on the topic yesterday. We’ve... 3rd October 2024 (Updated 12th October 2024) · 8 mins read
Commodities Update A primer on the EU’s deforestation regulation The EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) will rejig the way commodity imports enter the EU when it comes into force later this year and could lead to premiums for compliant commodities over non... 17th June 2024 · 3 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Commodities Overview Chart Pack (Sep. 2023) Prices will remain buffeted by weak global economic growth and a strong dollar, at a time of mounting supply risks and some policy stimulus in China. These conflicting pressures suggest that prices... 8th September 2023 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Comparing the Fed’s new FCI to our own The Fed’s new FCI does a better job of illustrating the tightness of US financial conditions than various other measures. But our own FCI has had a better record at capturing turning points in real... 6th July 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Hikes nearly over, but most of their effect still to come While the hiking cycles of all major central banks will soon be in the rear-view mirror, most of their impact on activity lies on the road ahead. Based on the latest national accounts data, we... 9th May 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Answering your questions about our new FCIs We held an online Drop-In yesterday to present our new financial conditions indices and discuss how conditions have evolved in the wake of SVB’s collapse. (See a recording here). This Update addresses... 21st April 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Focus Introducing our new financial conditions indices (FCIs) We have revamped our financial conditions indices (FCIs) for DM economies. This document sets out a framework for analysing financial conditions, explains our methodology, presents and interprets our... 18th April 2023 · 20 mins read
