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Hikes nearly over, but most of their effect still to come

While the hiking cycles of all major central banks will soon be in the rear-view mirror, most of their impact on activity lies on the road ahead. Based on the latest national accounts data, we estimate that there is still plenty of scope for higher interest costs on existing debt to eat into incomes. And our financial conditions indices (FCIs) are flagging significant downside risks to growth from the high cost of new credit.

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