The effects of surging energy prices on global growth and rates

A prolonged conflict in the Middle East pushing oil to $90-100pb for a sustained period would be a significant headwind for the global economy. Importers such as the euro-zone would be hit hardest, while damage to production and export capacity would cap gains for exporters in the Middle East itself. The adverse effects should be limited by central banks “looking through” the shock and avoiding rate hikes, but cuts would probably be delayed.
 

As the conflict in the Middle East continues to unfold, we will be hosting another online briefing at 10:00 ET/15:00 GMT on Wednesday 4th March to examine how risks to energy and financial markets and to regional and global economies are evolving. Please register here to attend.