Latin America Economic Outlook Brazil and Mexico to lose their shine The surprising strength this year of the region’s two largest economies, Brazil and Mexico, will fade in 2024 and growth over the next couple of years is likely to come in below consensus expectations... 7th December 2023 · 22 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Where are we in the EM business cycle? A stand-out feature of the emerging world in 2023 has been the extent to which economic cycles have diverged. Divergence is likely to be the name of the game in 2024 too. We think some countries which... 7th December 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A guide to EM elections in 2024 Next year is one of the busiest ever in the EM electoral calendar, with votes taking place in countries accounting for over a third of EM GDP. The upcoming votes will have important implications for... 29th November 2023 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Inflation threats to slow but not stop EM easing cycle Rising food prices have already led to upside inflation surprises in parts of Asia, and central banks in the region are likely to ease policy later than their EM peers. But inflation should eventually... 5th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM PMIs a mixed bag, but export demand still weak The EM manufacturing PMIs for September were the proverbial mixed bag, but one commonality is that external demand remains fairly soft across the regions. Meanwhile, the further rise in the price... 2nd October 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Recent EM export resilience starting to fade EM goods exports held up relatively well at the start of the year but more recent data suggest that resilience is waning. With demand from advanced economies set to soften, the boost from auto exports... 16th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Pockets of vulnerability in major EMs Financial risks across the major EMs look relatively well contained for the time being but there are some areas of weakness. Most immediately, following President Erdogan’s election victory the... 31st May 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Takeaways from our EM roundtables Over the past couple of weeks we have held a series of roundtable discussions with clients across Asia and North America on the outlook for EMs. In this Update we provide our thoughts on the recurring... 19th May 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What does China’s end of zero-COVID mean for EMs? China’s abandonment of its zero-COVID policy could lead to supply chain disruption in other EMs, particularly other parts of Asia and Mexico, though we’re not too concerned yet. And outbound Chinese... 4th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook A difficult year ahead The sharp slowdown in EM GDP growth seen in 2022 is likely to be followed by further weakness across most of the emerging world in 2023. Sluggish growth and falling inflation will at least allow... 20th December 2022 · 2 mins read
