Trump, tariffs and global supply chains

If Donald Trump were to impose a universal 10% tariff on US imports, we wouldn’t expect widespread reshoring of manufacturing production back to the US. And if it were accompanied by a 60% tariff on Chinese imports, the main beneficiaries would be other low-cost EMs – not the US. However, if Trump were to specifically target other countries with big trade imbalances with the US, Mexico and (to a lesser extent) Vietnam appear vulnerable.

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