Trump’s reciprocal tariffs – who’s at risk?

If the Trump administration pursues a reciprocal tariff strategy rather than a 10% universal tariff, then it could result in a smaller rise in the overall effective tariff rate than we have assumed. But while most DMs would come out relatively unscathed, emerging markets would suffer a greater loss of competitiveness, with India, Brazil and Turkey looking among the most exposed. It is probable that their governments (among others) would provide concessions to President Trump in an attempt to prevent reciprocal tariffs from being imposed.