Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Emerging Markets Outlook: Tariff storm one of many headwinds EM GDP growth picked up towards the end of last year, but the outlook is increasingly challenging – and not just because of US import tariffs. Weaker capital inflows, lower commodity prices and tight... 26th March 2025 · 27 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Bracing for headwinds Headwinds to growth will remain strong in 2025 and our forecasts lie below the consensus. While more protectionist US trade policy will hit China and Mexico, the impact for most is likely to be... 19th December 2024 · 27 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook EM growth enters a slower phase Aggregate EM growth is entering a softer patch, despite the tailwind from the Fed’s easing cycle. Growth concerns will prompt central banks in much of Asia to cut interest rates. But stubborn... 25th September 2024 · 26 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook EM easing cycle moving into a new phase Emerging markets in Asia and parts of Europe will continue to perform well and better than most expect this year, but we think that Latin America will lag behind. The EM monetary easing cycle is... 27th June 2024 · 26 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook EM easing cycle to broaden out GDP growth across most of the emerging world will fall short of consensus expectations this year. But there will be key bright spots such as India and Taiwan. While disinflation is likely to proceed... 3rd April 2024 · 26 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Diverging Paths Aggregate EM GDP growth will enter a slower phase over the coming quarters. But the headline figure masks an unusually large variation in prospects at a country level. Many of the EMs that fared... 12th December 2023 · 27 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Central banks shifting into easing mode EM growth will be weaker than most expect over the coming quarters. And with inflation falling back at the same time, the nascent EM monetary easing cycle will broaden out. Strong wage pressures in... 29th June 2023 · 30 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook First to hike, first to cut Aggregate EM GDP growth will be much stronger this year than last, but that’s almost entirely a result of China’s reopening rebound. Growth in most other EMs will be weaker and will generally... 4th April 2023 · 27 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Mounting headwinds set stage for sluggish growth EM GDP growth has slowed sharply this year and is likely to remain sluggish in 2023 and 2024 as weak external demand and tight financial conditions take their toll. Having started hiking rates much... 27th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria’s recovery looking bleak The latest data out of Nigeria suggest that GDP growth weakened further in Q2. Ongoing production problems in the oil sector will drag on growth in the coming year and, while that is likely to be... 15th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook EM risks building as global backdrop worsens EM GDP growth will be weaker than most expect in 2022 and 2023 as China’s economy rebounds only moderately and activity slows elsewhere. Inflation is set to remain elevated for some time yet, and... 26th July 2022 · 28 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Global backdrop lays bare EM vulnerabilities Most large EMs are weathering the environment of rising global interest rates and a strong dollar relatively well. That said, countries with large current account deficits, most notably Chile and... 18th July 2022 · 9 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack High inflation to keep central banks in tightening mode Having surged in recent months, there are some tentative signs that EM inflation is nearing a peak. Our measure of aggregate EM inflation was steady at 7.0% y/y between April and May and some... 23rd June 2022 · 9 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Asia joins the EM rate hike club Upside surprises to inflation coupled with a hawkish Fed have prompted aggressive monetary policy responses by central banks across the emerging world over the past month. Policymakers in Czechia... 23rd May 2022 · 9 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Growth to underwhelm as inflation surges Lockdowns in China and spillovers from the war in Ukraine will slow the EM recovery and growth is likely to be weaker than most expect. Recession risks are rising in Emerging Europe in particular. On... 28th April 2022 · 28 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Spillovers from war in Ukraine intensifying The perfect storm of surging commodity prices due to the war in Ukraine and the hawkish shift by major DM central banks has pushed a few frontier markets to the brink of sovereign default. Sri Lanka... 22nd April 2022 · 10 mins read
