Emerging Markets Outlook: Growth concerns to prompt more rate cuts

EM exports have held up well this year despite higher US tariffs, but the growth outlook over the second half of the year looks more challenging. We expect a slowdown in most EMs and our forecasts generally sit below consensus for this year. Although the EM disinflation process has slowed, growth concerns have prompted a dovish shift by EM central banks in the last few months and we have revised down some of our interest rate forecasts. We think there is scope for more rate cuts in Asia and parts of Latin America than most expect this year, though our forecasts sit on the hawkish side in Central and Eastern Europe.