Ariane Curtis

Ariane Curtis joined Capital Economics in September 2021 and is an Economist in the Global Economics team. Ariane joins from the Bank of England, where she worked in the International Directorate. She has a BA in Economics from Dalhousie University in Canada and an MSc in economics from University College London.

Global Economics Update

PMIs: Weak demand weighing on price pressures

Although activity in the manufacturing sector looks to have improved somewhat in May, that was mainly due to stronger growth in some large emerging markets. The outlook for industry remains bleak...

1st June 2023 2 mins read

Global Economics Update

Rebound in trade in March likely to be short-lived

Although world trade rebounded in March amid the reopening recovery in China, we don’t think this marks the beginning of a broader turnaround in global trade. In fact, timelier data point to renewed...

31st May 2023 4 mins read

Global Economics Update

PMIs show strong service sector activity driving growth

May’s PMIs suggest that activity in advanced economies has continued to hold up well amid a strong rebound in the service sector. Meanwhile, weak demand for manufactured goods is weighing heavily on...

23rd May 2023 2 mins read

Global Economics Update

Strong auto sector rebound probably largely in the past

The rebound in global auto production and sales over the past year has been partly responsible for the better-than-expected activity data over the past several months. And with auto sales in most...

23rd May 2023 4 mins read

Global Economics Chart Book

Surveys giving mixed messages at start of Q2

Q1 GDP releases have confirmed that the major economies avoided recession at the start of the year and some of the more recent survey data suggest that this resilience continued into Q2. The composite...

12th May 2023 12 mins read

Global Economics Update

Exports set to rebound in March, but outlook still bleak

While world trade fell further in February, the available data point to a rise in March, especially due to a strong rebound in China. But that rebound looks to have already reversed in April. And with...

9th May 2023 4 mins read

Global Economics Update

Is food inflation finally about to turn a corner?

While food CPI inflation remains very high in all major advanced economies – and especially so in Europe – we expect it to fall sharply in the coming year. Energy and labour costs have been key in...

4th May 2023 5 mins read

Global Inflation Watch

Core inflation to fall, but upside risks have grown

Headline inflation looks set to fall sharply as energy effects subside and the let-up in product shortages reduces goods inflation further. We also expect services inflation to decrease as demand...

26th April 2023 15 mins read

Global Economics Update

PMIs still pointing to robust GDP growth

Once again the PMIs suggest that real activity in advanced economies continues to shrug off the effects of higher interest rates. According to the flash PMIs, GDP and employment growth both got off to...

21st April 2023 3 mins read

Global Economics Chart Book

Mixed signals for now but broader weakness to come

Recent data appear to confirm that economic activity held up better than feared at the start of 2023. Retail sales rose in most major economies over the first two months of the year, world industrial...

13th April 2023 13 mins read

Global Trade Monitor

World trade bearing the brunt of weak demand

As of January, world trade had already fallen by more than 5% from its peak in September. And despite a slight boost from reopening in China, several leading indicators still point to further falls in...

11th April 2023 4 mins read

Global Central Bank Watch

Gauging the economic effects of banking turmoil

Central banks are now in a more difficult position, weighing persistently high inflation on the one hand against strains in the banking sector on the other. For now, they are separating the two by...

5th April 2023 15 mins read

Global Economics Update

Manufacturing PMIs: weaker activity and inflation

The latest manufacturing PMIs suggest that global industrial activity was broadly flat in Q1, and confirm that the post-COVID rebound in China was concentrated in the service sector. The upside is...

3rd April 2023 2 mins read

Global Economics Update

PMIs suggest DMs avoided recession in Q1

The flash PMIs for March suggest that not only did advanced economies avoid recession in Q1, but the outlook for activity has improved as well. However, we still think the hit from higher interest...

24th March 2023 3 mins read

Global Economics Chart Book

Credit growth slowing even before banking strains

Even before SVB’s collapse prompted a reassessment of the health of the global banking system, bank credit conditions were already tightening in response to higher interest rates. We have written many...

17th March 2023 13 mins read

Global Economics Chart Book

Recessions postponed, not cancelled

A raft of strong data out of the US have poured cold water on the idea that its economy has tumbled into recession at the start of 2023. And this comes after GDP data revealed that the euro-zone and...

16th February 2023 13 mins read