Our ANZChartPack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments.
Underlying inflation in Australia gained traction in Q3, while leading indicators suggest that it will remain stubbornly high. With the economy not yet cooling sufficiently to ease capacity pressures, we expect the RBA to deliver a final 25bp hike at its November meeting. Meanwhile, timely data suggest that New Zealand’s recovery remains on course, while core inflation is gaining momentum. That should keep the RBNZ on track to tighten further, despite its unexpected hold in October. However, we doubt the Bank will hike as aggressively as markets expect.
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