UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Money & Lending (Nov. 2025)

November’s money and lending figures suggest that while the pre-Budget speculation about tax rises had little influence on households’ borrowing decisions, they were inclined to save a bit more.

5th January 2026 · 3 mins read

Japan Economics Update

Bank of Japan isn’t falling behind the curve just yet

We aren’t convinced that the Bank of Japan is falling behind the curve despite the recent acceleration in bank lending. Nonetheless, there are few signs that BoJ rate hikes are resulting in tighter...

5th January 2026 · 3 mins read

UK Housing Market Rapid Response

UK Nationwide House Prices (Dec. 2025)

December’s 0.4% m/m decline in Nationwide house prices rounds off a tough year for the housing market and suggests the combination of still-high mortgage rates and weak employment are still weighing...

2nd January 2026 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Australia’s housing rally will soon slow in earnest

Australia’s house price rally lost some steam in December and if we’re right that the Reserve Bank of Australia will lift interest rates as soon as February this slowdown has further to run.

2nd January 2026 · 3 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

US Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Oct. 2025)

The healthy 0.3% m/m rise in house prices in October adds to evidence that the housing market has regained some momentum following the 75bp fall in mortgage rates earlier this year. Prices are now on...

30th December 2025 · 2 mins read

UK Housing Market Chart Pack

UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Dec. 2025)

While housing activity and prices have been resilient to uncertainty ahead of the Budget and the subdued economic backdrop, there are few signs of a post-Budget rebound in buyer sentiment. If...

17th December 2025 · 1 min read

Canada Economics Update

Canada Housing Watch (Dec. 2025)

The housing market weakened in November, with sales activity and house prices both recording declines. Even so, the further improvement in the sales-to-new-listing ratio raises our confidence that...

15th December 2025 · 4 mins read

UK Housing Market Update

UK RICS Residential Market Survey (Nov. 2025)

Despite three quarters of the survey responses being gathered after the Budget, November’s RICS survey suggests buyer sentiment fell further in November even though actual housing activity and prices...

11th December 2025 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook

RBA set to reverse course on rate cuts in 2026

The RBA is poised to join the rather exclusive club of advanced economy central banks that tightens policy in 2026. With growth accelerating when there’s little to no spare capacity and the labour...

10th December 2025 · 20 mins read

UK Housing Market Rapid Response

UK Halifax House Prices (Nov. 2025)

The stagnation in the Halifax measure of house prices in November sends a weaker signal than the Nationwide release earlier this week. But with prices having only fallen once in the last six months...

5th December 2025 · 3 mins read

UK Housing Market Rapid Response

UK Nationwide House Prices (Nov. 2025)

The rise in the Nationwide measure of house prices in November provides further evidence that actual house prices have been more resilient to Budget uncertainty than some RICS sentiment indicators...

2nd December 2025 · 3 mins read

US Housing Market Chart Pack

US Housing Market Chart Pack (Nov. 25)

The Fed looks set to cut interest rates again in December, but we think investors are too optimistic about further easing next year. We expect only one 25bp cut in 2026, compared with roughly 75bp of...

1st December 2025 · 1 min read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Are first-time buyers fuelling the house prices rally?

The less stringent criteria for accessing the government’s support scheme for first-time home buyers hasn’t noticeably boosted overall housing demand. Indeed, the key constraint remains extremely...

1st December 2025 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Australian housing can’t buck its affordability problem

Australia's house price growth picked up further in November and leading indicators suggest the rally has further to run. However, with the RBA unlikely to lower interest rates any further, mortgage...

1st December 2025 · 3 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

US Case-Shiller/ FHFA House Prices (Sep 2025)

The 0.1% m/m rise in house prices in September matched August’s modest gain, and points to a tentative house price recovery from here. We are predicting that a pick-up in demand paired with nagging...

25th November 2025 · 2 mins read