US Housing Market Outlook US Housing Outlook: Market in need of rate relief that is not coming President Trump’s inflationary trade and immigration policies leave no clear path to the lower borrowing costs that the housing market desperately needs. A tariff-driven resurgence in inflation will... 2nd May 2025 · 15 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Housing market adds to the downside risks to activity We suspect that the recent slowdown in house prices this year is temporary. But while it is not our base case, a weaker housing market for longer would add to the downside risks to our already below... 2nd May 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Outlook UK Housing Outlook: Housing relatively well insulated from Trump tariffs While the more uncertain global backdrop due to the new US tariffs regime means we have become more confident in our below-consensus UK GDP forecast, the prospect of falling mortgage rates suggests UK... 1st May 2025 · 17 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Weak housing market starting to weigh on inflation Stretched housing affordability continues to keep a lid on house price growth. And if we’re right that the RBA will only lower rates by another 50bp, it will remain a headwind. But with the housing... 1st May 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Nationwide House Prices (Apr. 2025) April’s bigger-than-expected 0.6% m/m fall in Nationwide house prices (consensus forecast 0.0% m/m, Capital Economics -0.1% m/m) isn’t too surprising as most of it probably reflects home purchases... 30th April 2025 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Feb. 2025) February’s 0.4% m/m rise in house prices is still a bit stronger than the timely leading indicators - like rising months’ supply and longer average time on market - would suggest. However, along with... 29th April 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack ANZ Chart Pack (Apr. 2025) Our ANZ Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. At first glance, Australia and New Zealand should be fairly insulated from the brunt of the US’s... 24th April 2025 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (Apr. 25) The housing market took another leg down in March, with the larger decline in single-family home prices suggesting that owner-occupiers rather than investors are behind the most recent weakness... 15th April 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Update UK RICS Residential Market Survey (Mar. 2025) March’s RICS survey suggests both the weak domestic economy and the headwinds from the global tariff storm continue to increase the downside risks to our 2025 forecasts for housing demand and prices... 10th April 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Halifax House Prices (Mar. 2025) The 0.5% m/m fall in Halifax house prices in March provides further evidence that the boost from buyers rushing to complete home purchases before the rise in stamp duty on 1 st April had already run... 7th April 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Did the pandemic change where households are choosing to live? The pandemic triggered an exodus from large cities in both the UK and US as households used the freedom of remote work to move to cheaper locations with larger homes. In the rental market, that trend... 3rd April 2025 · 6 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Apr. 2025) The easing in house price growth in both February and March suggests momentum in the housing market is waning. What’s more, as we now think the Bank of England will press pause on the interest rate... 2nd April 2025 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Nationwide House Prices (Mar. 2025) The stagnation in Nationwide house prices in March suggests any boost from buyers rushing to complete home purchases ahead of the rise in stamp duty from today may have run its course and/or been... 1st April 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA rate cuts won’t do much for housing affordability Australian house price growth remained soft in March, amid still-weak housing demand. Although the RBA’s easing cycle could help deliver a shift in momentum later this year, stretched affordability is... 1st April 2025 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack US Housing Market Chart Pack (Mar. 25) We think markets are too optimistic about Fed rate cuts this year, meaning the recent dip in mortgage rates is just a temporary respite. We expect rates to rebound to 7% and hover around that level... 25th March 2025 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Jan. 2025) The solid 0.5% m/m rise in house prices in January and accompanying pick-up in house price inflation to 4.7%, from 4.6%, confirms that the market has stopped cooling for now. While we still expect... 25th March 2025 · 2 mins read
