UK Housing Market Update Is this the start of a sharp slowdown in the UK housing market? Concerns over possible tax rises in the Budget on 26th November, higher mortgage rates and the weak jobs market have left the housing market paralysed. We doubt this is the start of a sharp slowdown... 14th October 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Is the Budget already buffeting the economy? The recent poor performance of the housing market and the weakness in consumer and business sentiment probably has more to do with rising inflation, higher mortgage rates and the stuttering jobs... 10th October 2025 · 9 mins read
UK Housing Market Update UK RICS Residential Market Survey (Sep. 2025) September’s RICS survey provides further evidence that the prospect of tax rises in the Budget on 26th November has put the housing market on ice, particularly in London. If taxes on property were to... 9th October 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Halifax House Prices (Sep. 2025) The fall in the Halifax measure of house prices in September was at odds with September’s 0.5% m/m rise on the alternative Nationwide measure. But it supports other leading indicators which suggest... 7th October 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Nationwide House Prices (Sep. 2025) While September’s 0.5% m/m gain in Nationwide house prices was better than expected (consensus forecast, CE +0.2% m/m), we suspect that the weak labour market and still high mortgage rates will... 1st October 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia’s house price growth may reach 7% House price growth retained its strong momentum in September and our leading index suggests the rally has further to run. But with affordability still very stretched, we suspect that the housing... 1st October 2025 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack US Housing Market Chart Pack (Sep. 25) We expect the recent drop in mortgage rates to give the housing market a short-term boost, although buying activity will remain low by historic standards. We expect the 30-year fixed rate to stay... 30th September 2025 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Jul. 2025) The 0.1% m/m fall in house prices in July marks the fifth consecutive monthly decline, meaning it now looks unlikely that prices will rise this year, as we had previously thought. That said, we still... 30th September 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (Aug. 2025) There is little evidence in August’s money and lending figures that concerns over further tax rises in the Budget on 26th November are having a big influence on households’ financial decisions as of... 29th September 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Sep. 2025) Possible tax rises in the Budget on 26th November risk further restraining housing activity next year. What’s more, our new forecast for 10-year gilt yields to fall from 4.71% now to 4.25% next year... 25th September 2025 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook A tale of two recoveries The Australian economy bounced back strongly in Q2, and it increasingly appears that the recovery has legs. In contrast, the New Zealand economy remains mired in a deep slump, and we believe that it... 25th September 2025 · 20 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (Sep. 2025) The rise in home sales in August was a little better than expected and, while house prices did edge down, there was little in the latest housing data to make us doubt our view that house prices are... 16th September 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Update UK RICS Residential Market Survey (Aug. 2025) August’s RICS survey shows that the combination of weak employment, rebounding mortgage rates and fears over tax rises in the Budget on 26 th November are holding back housing activity, while rents... 11th September 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Focus EZ housing recovery to give only a small boost to GDP House prices in the euro-zone are increasing quite quickly, but we doubt that this will last. So rising house prices will provide only limited support to household consumption and investment in the... 5th September 2025 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales & Halifax House Prices (Jul./Aug. 2025) The rises in retail sales volumes in July and the Halifax measure of house prices in August suggest the economy maintained some decent momentum early in Q3. The risk is talk of tax rises ahead of the... 5th September 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Prime central London house prices to continue to lag behind After falling by 16% from their 2021 peak to their recent trough in March, prime central London (PCL) house prices have risen in each of the three months to June. But with prime buyers less reliant on... 4th September 2025 · 3 mins read
