Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Australia’s house price growth may reach 7%

House price growth retained its strong momentum in September and our leading index suggests the rally has further to run. But with affordability still very stretched, we suspect that the housing...

1st October 2025 · 3 mins read

US Housing Market Chart Pack

US Housing Market Chart Pack (Sep. 25)

We expect the recent drop in mortgage rates to give the housing market a short-term boost, although buying activity will remain low by historic standards. We expect the 30-year fixed rate to stay...

30th September 2025 · 1 min read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

US Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Jul. 2025)

The 0.1% m/m fall in house prices in July marks the fifth consecutive monthly decline, meaning it now looks unlikely that prices will rise this year, as we had previously thought. That said, we still...

30th September 2025 · 2 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Money & Lending (Aug. 2025)

There is little evidence in August’s money and lending figures that concerns over further tax rises in the Budget on 26th November are having a big influence on households’ financial decisions as of...

29th September 2025 · 3 mins read

UK Housing Market Chart Pack

UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Sep. 2025)

Possible tax rises in the Budget on 26th November risk further restraining housing activity next year. What’s more, our new forecast for 10-year gilt yields to fall from 4.71% now to 4.25% next year...

25th September 2025 · 1 min read

Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook

A tale of two recoveries

The Australian economy bounced back strongly in Q2, and it increasingly appears that the recovery has legs. In contrast, the New Zealand economy remains mired in a deep slump, and we believe that it...

25th September 2025 · 20 mins read

Canada Economics Update

Canada Housing Watch (Sep. 2025)

The rise in home sales in August was a little better than expected and, while house prices did edge down, there was little in the latest housing data to make us doubt our view that house prices are...

16th September 2025 · 4 mins read

UK Housing Market Update

UK RICS Residential Market Survey (Aug. 2025)

August’s RICS survey shows that the combination of weak employment, rebounding mortgage rates and fears over tax rises in the Budget on 26 th November are holding back housing activity, while rents...

11th September 2025 · 3 mins read

Europe Economics Focus

EZ housing recovery to give only a small boost to GDP

House prices in the euro-zone are increasing quite quickly, but we doubt that this will last. So rising house prices will provide only limited support to household consumption and investment in the...

5th September 2025 · 9 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Retail Sales & Halifax House Prices (Jul./Aug. 2025)

The rises in retail sales volumes in July and the Halifax measure of house prices in August suggest the economy maintained some decent momentum early in Q3. The risk is talk of tax rises ahead of the...

5th September 2025 · 3 mins read

UK Housing Market Update

Prime central London house prices to continue to lag behind

After falling by 16% from their 2021 peak to their recent trough in March, prime central London (PCL) house prices have risen in each of the three months to June. But with prime buyers less reliant on...

4th September 2025 · 3 mins read

UK Housing Market Rapid Response

UK Nationwide House Prices (Aug. 2025)

The unexpected fall in the Nationwide measure of house prices in August shows that the recovery in the housing market after the drag from the rise in stamp duty charges on 1st April is being held back...

1st September 2025 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Australia’s housing rebound continues to gather steam

Australian house prices rose at their fastest pace in 18 months in August. With leading indicators suggesting further gains are on the cards, we’re inclined to revise up our forecast for house prices...

1st September 2025 · 4 mins read

UK Housing Market Chart Pack

UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Aug. 2025)

The still tight rental market and softening outlook for housing activity – due to weak employment, high mortgage rates and growing speculation around property tax rises in the Autumn Budget – suggests...

29th August 2025 · 1 min read

Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack

ANZ Chart Pack (Aug. 2025)

Our ANZ Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. We believe monetary easing has further to run in the Antipodes. The case for policy stimulus is clear...

27th August 2025 · 1 min read