Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Capacity pressures to persist despite housing weakness This week’s data will likely have reinforced the RBA’s view that tighter financial conditions are weighing on the housing market. But we doubt that housing wealth effects will push consumption much... 3rd July 2026 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Nationwide House Prices (Jun. 2026) The stagnation in the Nationwide measure of house prices in June (CE -0.2%, consensus 0.0%) shows that the rise in mortgage rates triggered by the Iran war continues to weigh on the housing market... 1st July 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia’s housing downturn has further to run Australian house prices continued to decline in June, and we think they won’t bottom out until early next year. Although much ink has been spilt about recent housing tax changes, they have yet to have... 1st July 2026 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Apr. 2026) Pause in house price falls will be temporary The unchanged level of house prices in April was a slightly better result than we had been predicting and reinforced our view that a sustained downturn in... 30th June 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Jun. 2026) The continued weakness in some leading indicators of buyer sentiment suggests that the risks to our view that house prices will rise by 1.5% in the year to Q4 2026 lie to the downside. However, if... 29th June 2026 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA still set to hike, housing tax changes pass Australia’s latest activity and labour market data continue to point to softer momentum, but the CPI figures suggest that underlying inflation pressures have not yet been tamed. Accordingly, we still... 26th June 2026 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Central banks to hike as inflation concerns dominate The RBA has already shifted policy back to restrictive territory and we expect it to tighten settings a bit further, as it seeks to ensure that activity slows sufficiently to bring inflation under... 25th June 2026 · 20 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly A cooling housing market but the RBA’s job isn’t done Australian consumers remain deeply pessimistic, particularly about the housing market, with house price expectations falling to a three-year low and auction clearance rates continuing to weaken. Even... 12th June 2026 · 5 mins read
UK Housing Market Update UK RICS Residential Market Survey (May 2026) While May’s RICS housing market survey shows that the worst of the falls in buyer sentiment may be in the past, a number of leading indicators continue to suggest that the risks to our forecast for... 11th June 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Halifax House Prices (May 2026) The modest fall in the Halifax measure of house prices in May shows that the rise in mortgage rates triggered by the Iran war continues to weigh on the housing market. 5th June 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia’s housing market correction is underway Australian house prices fell for a second straight month in May, and leading indicators suggest that the decline has further to run. However, with inflationary pressures still running hot, the housing... 2nd June 2026 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Nationwide House Prices (May 2026) The bigger-than-expected fall in the Nationwide measure of house prices in May brings the index more into line with the recent weakness in the alternative Halifax measure of house prices and provides... 1st June 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack UK Housing Market Chart Pack (May 2026) While some leading indicators point to a sharp slowdown in house price inflation in the coming months, the smaller rise in mortgage rates since the start of the Iran war than in past shocks and the... 28th May 2026 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Mar. 2026) Back-to-back house price declines in February in March, before the full effects of the Iran war on mortgage rates would even have been felt, suggest now is the time to downgrade our forecast. Rather... 26th May 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update What would a new PM mean for the housing market? None of the three leading candidates to replace Starmer as Prime Minister advocate an increase in total housing supply, not least due to the fiscal constraints. But Rayner and Burnham may be more... 21st May 2026 · 4 mins read
