Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack ANZ Chart Pack (Nov. 2025) Recent developments reinforce the divergent outlooks for the Antipodean economies. The RBA has cut rates by just 75bp so far. Given the relative resilience of the Australian economy and ongoing signs... 3rd November 2025 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Rapid housing rebound will keep RBA on the sidelines Australia’s housing rally showed no signs of slowing in October. Given the RBA’s ongoing concerns about shelter inflation, the data reinforce our view that policy easing is unlikely to be on the... 3rd November 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Nationwide House Prices (Oct. 2025) The rise in the Nationwide measure of house prices in October suggests that homebuyers may not be as fazed by the threat of tax rises in the Budget on 26 th November, potentially on property, as it... 31st October 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (Sep. 2025) There is little evidence within September’s money and lending data that the prospect of tax rises in the Budget on 26th November is influencing households’ financial decisions just yet. 29th October 2025 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Case-Shiller/ FHFA House Prices (Aug 2025) The 0.2% m/m rise in house prices in August follows five months of flat or falling prices. We are predicting that a modest pick-up in demand paired with nagging undersupply will support prices in the... 28th October 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Outlook Possible tax rises a further headwind to housing Due to our view that lingering fiscal concerns will mean gilt yields and therefore mortgage rates will fall by less than we previously thought, we now expect house prices in the year to Q4 to rise by... 27th October 2025 · 17 mins read
US Housing Market Outlook Boost from lower mortgage rates to be short-lived While slightly lower borrowing costs have boosted the near-term outlook, the decline has not been large enough to meaningfully improve housing affordability. In addition, we believe that market... 20th October 2025 · 11 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (Oct. 2025) The weakness in the MLS House Price Index in September was largely due to a decline in Toronto, where there is little sign of a turnaround in sight. That presents a risk to our view that the... 16th October 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Is this the start of a sharp slowdown in the UK housing market? Concerns over possible tax rises in the Budget on 26th November, higher mortgage rates and the weak jobs market have left the housing market paralysed. We doubt this is the start of a sharp slowdown... 14th October 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Is the Budget already buffeting the economy? The recent poor performance of the housing market and the weakness in consumer and business sentiment probably has more to do with rising inflation, higher mortgage rates and the stuttering jobs... 10th October 2025 · 9 mins read
UK Housing Market Update UK RICS Residential Market Survey (Sep. 2025) September’s RICS survey provides further evidence that the prospect of tax rises in the Budget on 26th November has put the housing market on ice, particularly in London. If taxes on property were to... 9th October 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Halifax House Prices (Sep. 2025) The fall in the Halifax measure of house prices in September was at odds with September’s 0.5% m/m rise on the alternative Nationwide measure. But it supports other leading indicators which suggest... 7th October 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Nationwide House Prices (Sep. 2025) While September’s 0.5% m/m gain in Nationwide house prices was better than expected (consensus forecast, CE +0.2% m/m), we suspect that the weak labour market and still high mortgage rates will... 1st October 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia’s house price growth may reach 7% House price growth retained its strong momentum in September and our leading index suggests the rally has further to run. But with affordability still very stretched, we suspect that the housing... 1st October 2025 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack US Housing Market Chart Pack (Sep. 25) We expect the recent drop in mortgage rates to give the housing market a short-term boost, although buying activity will remain low by historic standards. We expect the 30-year fixed rate to stay... 30th September 2025 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Jul. 2025) The 0.1% m/m fall in house prices in July marks the fifth consecutive monthly decline, meaning it now looks unlikely that prices will rise this year, as we had previously thought. That said, we still... 30th September 2025 · 2 mins read
