UK Economics Weekly

Strong rebound in housing activity an upside risk to GDP

Our forecast implies that the recovery in the housing market will both directly and indirectly add about 0.8% to the level of GDP by the end of 2026. But the risk is that the housing market rebound is...

9th August 2024 · 11 mins read

UK Housing Market Update

RICS Residential Market Survey (Jul. 2024)

Increasing demand points to stronger price growth Tentative signs from July’s RICS survey add to the growing evidence that demand and prices are starting to pick up. And as lenders start to cut...

8th August 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Housing Market Rapid Response

UK Halifax House Prices (Jul. 2024)

After three months of stagnation, the bigger-than-expected rise in the Halifax house price index in July provides further evidence that house prices are bouncing back from the slight rise in mortgage...

7th August 2024 · 2 mins read

US Housing Market Chart Pack

US Housing Market Chart Pack (Jul. 2024)

A pullback in buyer demand paired with rising supply has cooled the market, causing house price inflation to ease. However, the recent sharp decline in mortgage rates will offset some of that softness...

6th August 2024 · 1 min read

UK Housing Market Rapid Response

UK Nationwide House Price Index (Jul. 2024)

1st August 2024 · 4 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Jul.)

Australian house prices gained a bit of momentum in July. However, leading indicators continue to suggest that the housing market will cool markedly in the months ahead. Even if house price growth...

1st August 2024 · 3 mins read

US Housing Market Update

Strong supply weighing on house prices in the Sun Belt

Significant homebuilding in the Sun Belt region over the past three years has restored housing inventory to pre-pandemic levels, which is why house prices there have stalled. In contrast, markets in...

30th July 2024 · 4 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (May 2024)

Another moderate 0.3% m/m rise in house prices in May adds to the evidence that sellers are losing their grip on the market due to increasing supply. Do not write our forecast for a 5% gain in house...

30th July 2024 · 1 min read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Making sense of Australia’s two-speed housing cycle

Much of the recent resilience in Australia’s house price growth can be attributed to a handful of capital cities where the property markets have gone from strength to strength. We believe that there...

23rd July 2024 · 4 mins read

US Housing Market Outlook

Market still tight, but slowly moving towards balance

We expect mortgage rates to continue falling, but not by enough to fully offset the effects of mortgage rate ‘lock-in’. As a result, although we expect existing home sales to rebound, we forecast that...

16th July 2024 · 15 mins read

UK Housing Market Update

RICS Residential Market Survey (Jun. 2024)

Revival unlikely to materialise as soon as surveyors hope While demand continued to slip back in June, surveyors were optimistic it would soon pick up. Given elevated mortgage rates we suspect the...

11th July 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Housing Market Rapid Response

UK Halifax House Prices (Jun. 2024)

As the first economic data release under a Labour government since 2010, the decline in Halifax house prices in June meant that Labour’s tenure got off to a slightly downbeat start. However, while we...

5th July 2024 · 2 mins read

UK Housing Market Rapid Response

Nationwide House Prices (Jun. 2024)

Although house prices rose slightly in June, an earlier dip means they were flat on the quarter in Q2. With signs mortgage rates are causing demand to falter and that supply is improving, we think...

1st July 2024 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Jun.)

Australian house price gains softened just a smidge in June as housing demand held up reasonably well. However, as strained affordability takes its toll, we still think that house price growth will...

1st July 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Housing Market Update

House prices to slip back in the near term

The slight increase in mortgage rates since the beginning of the year appears to have reached a tipping point for demand. At the same time, the supply of homes being put up for sale has increased...

27th June 2024 · 4 mins read