While housing activity and prices have been resilient to uncertainty ahead of the Budget and the subdued economic backdrop, there are few signs of a post-Budget rebound in buyer sentiment. If sentiment doesn’t pick-up in early 2026, that would pose a downside risk to our forecast for house prices in the year to Q4 to rise by 3.5% in 2026 and by 3.0% in 2027. Higher taxes on expensive homes and for landlords in the Budget will mean that the top end of the housing market remains subdued and rents will be higher than otherwise.
We’re hosting a 20-minute online briefing at 3pm GMT on Thursday 18th December on the latest central bank decisions and 2026 policy outlook. (Register here.)
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