US Economics Update Immigration crackdown hitting labour supply After stemming the inflow of unauthorised immigration over the Southwest border, the Trump administration now appears to be gradually ramping up the number of detentions and removals. This crackdown... 9th July 2025 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Weaker dollar not a significant inflationary threat A weaker dollar should not compound the upward pressure on goods prices from tariffs too greatly given that the greenback remains strong by historical standards and, in any case, the pass-through of... 7th July 2025 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Budget reconciliation + tariffs will leave deficit unchanged With the House of Representatives today passing the Senate’s bigger version of the budget reconciliation, the Republicans appear to have met President Trump’s timeline – to have the bill reach his... 3rd July 2025 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update JOLTS shows little sign of labour market weakness The JOLTS data suggest the labour market remained healthy in May, with job openings and private sector hiring rising, and layoffs low. However, the sharp rise in accommodation and food services job... 1st July 2025 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Fed remains on sidelines amid heightened uncertainty The Fed will remain on the sidelines for some time, waiting to see what impact tariffs will have on price inflation. We suspect that lingering fears of a more persistent impact will persuade the Fed... 18th June 2025 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Israel’s strikes on Iran: assessing the macro impact The overnight strikes by Israel on Iran mark a major escalation in the conflict in the region and, with the oil market tighter than it was a few months ago, the risks to oil prices look more balanced... 13th June 2025 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Limited US-China “deal” suggests ambitions are low A deal with China is done, according to President Trump, but its scope seems to be limited to easing some recent non-tariff restrictions, including China’s rare earth export controls. The wider trade... 11th June 2025 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Foreign visitor slump could lend the Fed a hand A slump in the number of foreign visitors to the US could prove to be a helpful source of deflationary pressure this year, while having a limited impact on GDP growth. 9th June 2025 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Trump unlikely to drive down drug prices substantially If President Trump succeeded in his aim of cutting prescription drug prices by 50% “almost immediately”, it could subtract more than 1%-point from headline PCE inflation. There is little indication of... 5th June 2025 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update Steel tariff hike deals fresh blow to manufacturers Any short-term boost to domestic steel and aluminium production from higher tariffs is likely to be short-lived and offset by declining output in metal-using industries – making the tariff hike a drag... 4th June 2025 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update JOLTS data continue to show a healthy labour market April’s JOLTS data suggest the labour market remained healthy at the start of the second quarter, with job openings rising and layoffs low. While there are some pockets of weakness in areas most at... 3rd June 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update The implications of the US court ruling on tariffs In this Update, we answer several key questions about how the US Court of International Trade tariff ruling might affect the US and other economies. The outlook may now rest on the decision of the... 29th May 2025 · 7 mins read
US Economics Update Tariff revenue should largely offset new tax cuts The budget reconciliation bill currently working its way through the House of Representatives, which includes a permanent extension of the original Trump tax cuts plus cut-down versions of his... 20th May 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Tariffs: where we stand and potential flashpoints The recent climbdown has left the effective US tariff on the rest of the world at around 15% as opposed to the 27% which was threatened at the height of this year’s trade war. While this is still the... 13th May 2025 · 8 mins read
Global Economics Update Global Trade Stress Monitor To cut through the noise surrounding tariff impacts, we’ve pinpointed seven key stages in the global trade cycle – tracking in real time how each is responding to tariffs. This tool helps clients... 13th May 2025 (Updated 8th July 2025) · 0 mins read
Global Economics Update A truce in the US-China trade war The US and China have each suspended for 90 days all but 10% of their Liberation Day tariffs and cancelled other retaliatory tariffs. This is a substantial de-escalation. However, the US still has... 12th May 2025 · 4 mins read
