US Economics Update Powell remaining on the Board makes Warsh’s difficult task even harder The FOMC’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged today, accompanied by moderately more hawkish communications, was overshadowed by Chair Jerome Powell announcing in the subsequent press... 29th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Answering your questions about private credit and macro risk We recently hosted an online Drop-In session to discuss private credit and the risks to the macroeconomy and financial markets. (Recording available here.) This Update provides answers to some of the... 22nd April 2026 · 6 mins read
US Economics Update Little sign yet of spillovers from private credit While investors are trying to pull funds away from private credit, there is little sign yet of any spillovers that might be forcing traditional lenders to tighten their credit standards. 21st April 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Reopening of Strait leaves us close to our baseline scenario The announcement that the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened has extended this month's dual rally in stocks and bonds. We think both rallies have further to run if things progress broadly in line with... 17th April 2026 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Core PCE-CPI inflation gap to narrow later this year Most of the factors causing the unusual situation of core PCE inflation being higher than core CPI inflation should reverse by the turn of the year, with core PCE inflation falling while core CPI... 15th April 2026 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update The economic consequences of a tax on Hormuz trade A tax on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz would be unlikely to have major near-term implications for global energy markets, trade or wider economic activity. But depending on how it is structured... 9th April 2026 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Major fiscal stimulus ahead of midterms looks unlikely The Republican-held Congress is likely to use its sole budget reconciliation for this fiscal year to pass a narrow bill to fund Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and top up the Pentagon’s... 8th April 2026 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Time to bet against the American consumer? The backdrop of a struggling labour market, already low saving and weak consumer confidence makes it more likely that households will respond to latest real income shock by cutting spending, rather... 31st March 2026 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update What are the potential implications of Houthi Attacks? While the direct effect of renewed strikes on shipping in the Red Sea on aggregate world trade is likely to be limited, the impact on Asian economies that rely more heavily on oil imports from Saudi... 31st March 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Will the Iran war undermine AI investment? The Iran war could take some of the momentum out of the AI investment boom but we doubt that it will fundamentally disrupt the overall build-out. 30th March 2026 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update High oil prices risk stalling nascent manufacturing recovery Sustained high oil prices would stall the nascent manufacturing recovery by weighing on global demand. The data centre buildout would likely go on unaffected, however, sustaining strong demand for hi... 19th March 2026 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Limited changes from the FOMC as it waits for more clarity The FOMC’s statement and dot plot today were arguably not as hawkish as many speculated, with the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) still pointing to one interest rate cut this year, despite an... 18th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Strategic reserves are no substitute for an open Strait A record-breaking release of emergency oil reserves could cushion a lack of supply from the Middle East and provide some relief to oil prices. However, this would prove temporary with prices likely to... 11th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Revisiting the risks around private credit Private credit funds have attracted growing scrutiny amid falling valuations and its exposure to software companies. Under a severe default scenario, losses might amount to around 0.4% of US GDP. That... 11th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Update Scenarios for the Iran war & the macro impact This note assesses the macro and commodity‑market implications of three potential scenarios for the Iran war. In the most benign – a severe but short‑lived conflict – the effects on GDP, inflation and... 10th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Commodities Update Modelling the scale of the energy market disruption This Update introduces our framework for estimating the scale of disruption to energy flows from events in the Middle East as well as three scenarios about how the conflict could play out from here... 9th March 2026 · 5 mins read
