US Economics Update Answering your questions on the economic outlook and AI We held an online Drop-in session yesterday (see here for a recording) to discuss the US economic outlook. This Update answers several of the questions we received, including the role that AI will... 8th October 2025 · 7 mins read
US Economics Update Economy to be largely unaffected by shutdown Most government shutdowns have a negligible macroeconomic impact, often lasting just a day or two, and this one might be no different. Even if it drags on, the effects should remain modest, with... 1st October 2025 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update JOLTS suggests stagnant labour market The JOLTS data for August suggest a broadly stagnant labour market. Job openings were little changed in most sectors, while the private sector hiring rate and quits rates both edged down. An exception... 30th September 2025 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update H-1B change highlights crackdown on legal immigration too The White House’s decision to impose a $100,000 application fee for H-1B visas confirms that the Trump administration is also determined to clamp down on legal immigration, which could further reduce... 22nd September 2025 · 6 mins read
US Economics Update Fed on board with further loosening despite high inflation The FOMC is now (sort of) on board with two further 25bp rate cuts this year but continues to anticipate less loosening in 2026 than markets have recently priced in, in part because it has become more... 17th September 2025 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Economy is doing better than weak payrolls suggest The news that payroll employment growth was 911,000 weaker than previously believed last year creates the impression the economy was in trouble even before the more recent near-stagnation in... 11th September 2025 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update AI splurge an upside risk to near-term growth The strength in IT equipment investment this year suggests the shift towards AI development and adoption is happening even sooner than our initial upbeat assumptions, posing an upside risk to the near... 10th September 2025 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update JOLTS points to a gradually easing labour market The JOLTS data for July point to a gradual easing in labour market conditions. The large decline in healthcare and social assistance job openings is another reason to think that the disproportionate... 3rd September 2025 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update The implications of the Court of Appeals ruling on tariffs In the wake of the Court of Appeals’ decision upholding a lower court finding that Trump exceeded his executive powers by imposing sweeping universal and reciprocal tariffs, this Update answers key... 2nd September 2025 · 6 mins read
US Economics Update Will Trump capture the FOMC? President Trump’s attempt to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook looks set to go the courts, which will determine the extent and limits of the administration’s ability to influence monetary policy. It remains... 26th August 2025 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update Why is the US tariff rate not higher? The actual tariff rate on US goods imports was only 9% in June, far below most estimates at the time of about 15%. This reflects a shift in the composition of imports towards countries and goods with... 20th August 2025 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Is the economy already benefitting from an AI boom? Investment in both computer hardware and software surged in the first half of this year, which could be a sign that the AI boom is now boosting economic growth. Most of that hardware is imported... 7th August 2025 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Integrity of economic data safe for now President Trump’s firing of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) commissioner marks another troubling step in his administration’s pressure campaign against Federal institutions. Still, we think a... 6th August 2025 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Will healthcare continue to boost payrolls growth? There are several headwinds to healthcare & social assistance employment that suggest it is unlikely to continue growing at its recent rapid pace, although we doubt payroll gains in the sector will... 6th August 2025 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Get used to weaker payrolls growth The July Employment Report was a taste of what is to come, with payroll gains set to be much weaker in the coming quarters than has been the case in recent years. This is the new normal amid the... 5th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update New US tariff regime still not the end of the story President Trump’s latest flurry of tariffs implies that the US effective tariff rate will rise to about 18%, from 2.3% last year. That is a little higher than we assumed and so presents modest... 1st August 2025 · 5 mins read
